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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 295.4B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 295.4B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 9.5B from August's 304.9B reading. The reading matched the 304.5B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 32.9B. Over the past 3 months, Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 299.95B, vs 296.1B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
295.4
Actual
304.5
Consensus
304.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.35 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 308.45
Actual: 295.4
Error: +13.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Poland) was reported at 295.40 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 304.50 billion by 9.10 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 304.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 291.31 billion, ranging from 265.00 billion to 305.80 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 298.43 billion, down from the prior three at 298.83 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.22 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 15.67 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Foreign Exchange Reserves has averaged 258.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/PLN, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.35 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Foreign Exchange Reserves - PL
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About Foreign Exchange Reserves — Poland
DEFINITION
Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the amount of foreign currency held by a country's central bank. These reserves are used to maintain stability in the country's currency and to fulfill international payment obligations. They serve as a measure of a country's economic strength and ability to withstand external shocks. Foreign Exchange Reserves are an important financial indicator for investors and policymakers, providing insight into a country's monetary policy and its ability to manage its currency.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 295.4 M, consensus 304.5 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 304.9 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 295 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |