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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 293.5B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 293.5B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 3.7B from May's 297.2B reading. The reading matched the 297B consensus. Foreign Exchange Reserves has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 297.4B, vs 296.8B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
293.5
Actual
297
Consensus
297.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.07 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 297
Actual: 293.5
Error: +3.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Poland) was reported at 293.50 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 297.00 billion by 3.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 297.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 278.42 billion, ranging from 255.90 billion to 305.80 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 298.83 billion, up from the prior three at 276.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.86 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 11.90 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Foreign Exchange Reserves has averaged 250.20 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.07 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Foreign Exchange Reserves - PL
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About Foreign Exchange Reserves — Poland
DEFINITION
Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the amount of foreign currency held by a country's central bank. These reserves are used to maintain stability in the country's currency and to fulfill international payment obligations. They serve as a measure of a country's economic strength and ability to withstand external shocks. Foreign Exchange Reserves are an important financial indicator for investors and policymakers, providing insight into a country's monetary policy and its ability to manage its currency.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 293.5 M, consensus 297 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 297.2 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 297.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.78) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 47.5 | 47.60 | Low | |