Poland’s GDP growth rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for Q4 2025 was reported at 0.90%, surpassing the market estimate of 0.80% and improving from the previous 0.80% reading. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a steady economic expansion despite recent headwinds. The geographic scope covers Poland’s entire economy, with temporal focus on the latest quarter ending November 2025.

Drivers this month

• Domestic consumption contributed approximately 0.40 percentage points (pp) to growth, supported by wage gains and stable employment.
• Industrial output added 0.30 pp, reflecting recovery in manufacturing and export sectors.
• Investment growth remained moderate, contributing 0.20 pp, with infrastructure projects and private sector capex showing resilience.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, keeping interest rates steady at 6.75% to balance inflation control with growth support. Inflation remains above target at 4.50% YoY, but easing from previous peaks. Fiscal policy continues to emphasize budget consolidation, with the government targeting a deficit below 3% of GDP in 2025.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN appreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in Poland’s growth trajectory. Polish 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling reduced short-term risk premia. Breakeven inflation rates edged down slightly, consistent with the central bank’s inflation outlook.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Poland’s growth show a mixed but improving picture. Industrial production rose 1.10% MoM in November 2025, while retail sales expanded 0.80% MoM, both supporting the GDP print. Unemployment held steady at 5.20%, near historic lows. Inflation, though elevated, has moderated from 6.30% YoY in mid-2025 to 4.50% currently.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The NBP’s steady policy rate at 6.75% reflects a calibrated approach amid slowing inflation and resilient growth. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.20% YoY, with lending standards stable. Financial conditions have tightened slightly compared to early 2025 but remain accommodative relative to the Eurozone.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Poland’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by higher tax revenues and controlled public spending. The government’s medium-term plan targets gradual debt reduction, aiming for a debt-to-GDP ratio below 50% by 2027. Public investment in infrastructure and green energy projects continues to support growth momentum.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. However, Poland’s diversified export base and EU funding buffers mitigate immediate shocks. Energy price volatility remains a concern, with potential inflationary spillovers.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD strengthened by 0.25% following the release, while Polish 10-year bond yields fell by 7 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment. Equity markets, represented by the PKN, gained 1.20%, driven by optimism in energy and industrial sectors.

Looking ahead, Poland’s growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects GDP growth averaging 0.80% QoQ through 2026, supported by steady domestic demand and EU structural funds. Inflation is expected to gradually ease toward the 2.50% target by mid-2026, allowing the NBP to consider rate cuts in H2 2026.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected export growth driven by EU recovery and easing supply constraints.
• Accelerated investment in green technologies and infrastructure.
• Inflation falls faster, enabling monetary easing and boosting consumption.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate GDP growth of 0.70-0.90% QoQ sustained by balanced domestic and external demand.
• Inflation gradually declines, with stable monetary policy.
• Fiscal discipline maintained, supporting investor confidence.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and energy supplies.
• Inflation remains sticky, forcing further monetary tightening.
• Global slowdown dampens export demand and investment.

Poland’s latest GDP growth rate of 0.90% QoQ signals a resilient economy navigating complex challenges. The interplay of monetary prudence, fiscal responsibility, and structural reforms underpins this steady expansion. External risks remain, but Poland’s diversified economy and EU integration provide buffers. Market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with key indicators pointing to a moderate growth path in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ

Poland’s GDP growth data typically influences several tradable assets linked to its economic health. The Polish zloty (PLN) often strengthens on positive prints, while government bonds react to shifts in inflation and monetary policy expectations. Energy and industrial stocks also track GDP trends closely due to their economic sensitivity.

• EURPLN – Currency pair sensitive to Poland’s economic outlook and ECB-NBP policy divergence.
• PKN – Major Polish energy company, correlates with GDP and industrial activity.
• PKO – Leading bank, reflects credit growth and financial conditions.
• USDCAD – Proxy for commodity-linked currencies, indirectly affected by Poland’s export dynamics.
• BTCUSD – Risk sentiment barometer, often moves inversely with economic uncertainty.

FAQs

What is Poland’s current GDP growth rate QoQ?

Poland’s GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is 0.90%, up from 0.80% in the previous quarter.

How does this GDP print affect monetary policy?

The growth rate supports the NBP’s cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth, possibly delaying rate cuts until mid-2026.

What are the main risks to Poland’s economic outlook?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and global demand shocks that could slow export growth.

Takeaway: Poland’s economy shows steady growth with manageable risks, supported by prudent policy and structural resilience.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.