Poland’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience with a 0.90% QoQ GDP growth in Q4 2025, marking a modest acceleration from the 0.80% pace recorded in the prior quarter. This growth rate remains below the 1.30% peaks seen in early 2025 but outpaces the 12-month average of approximately 0.85% as per the Sigmanomics database. The geographic scope focuses on Poland’s domestic economy, while the temporal frame covers the latest quarter and historical data from the past year.

Drivers this month

• Strong industrial output contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp).
• Consumer spending added 0.30 pp, supported by stable employment.
• Net exports contributed 0.15 pp, reflecting improved trade balances.
• Government investment added 0.10 pp, aided by fiscal stimulus.

Policy pulse

The 0.90% growth aligns with the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target zone, supporting a cautious monetary stance. The central bank has maintained interest rates steady at 6.50%, balancing inflation control with growth support.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN strengthened 0.30% against the EUR in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting confidence in growth momentum.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Poland’s GDP growth include stable inflation, moderate unemployment, and balanced fiscal accounts. Inflation currently hovers around 3.20% YoY, close to the central bank’s 2.50% target, while unemployment remains low at 4.10%. The government budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q4 2025, down from 3.10% a year ago, reflecting prudent fiscal management.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Poland’s steady policy rate of 6.50% has kept borrowing costs manageable. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.50% YoY, supporting private consumption and investment without overheating the economy.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus measures, including infrastructure spending and social programs, have contributed 0.10 pp to GDP growth this quarter. The government’s commitment to deficit reduction and debt stabilization supports long-term fiscal sustainability.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Poland’s economy faces moderate external risks, including supply chain disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions. However, diversified trade partners and EU support mechanisms mitigate these risks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD appreciated 0.25% post-release, while 2-year Polish government bond yields climbed 5 basis points, reflecting investor confidence in growth prospects.

Looking ahead, Poland’s GDP growth trajectory faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline scenario projects continued growth near 0.80-1.00% QoQ, supported by stable domestic demand and moderate external demand.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (30% probability): Growth accelerates to 1.10-1.30% QoQ, driven by stronger exports and investment, aided by easing geopolitical tensions and EU funding inflows.
• Base (50% probability): Growth remains steady at 0.80-1.00%, reflecting balanced domestic consumption and cautious fiscal policy.
• Bearish (20% probability): Growth slows to 0.50-0.70% due to renewed external shocks, tighter monetary policy, or fiscal retrenchment.

Structural & long-run trends

Poland’s long-term growth is supported by demographic shifts, digitalization, and EU integration. However, challenges such as labor shortages and energy transition costs may temper growth beyond 2026.

Poland’s 0.90% QoQ GDP growth in Q4 2025 confirms a resilient economy navigating a complex global environment. The data suggests a stable expansion phase, supported by balanced monetary and fiscal policies. While external risks remain, Poland’s diversified economy and policy framework provide buffers. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and credit conditions closely to adjust strategies accordingly.

Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ

Poland’s GDP growth influences several key markets, including equities, bonds, currency, and commodities. The following symbols historically track GDP movements and provide insight into market sentiment and economic health:

• WKDP – Polish stock index ETF, sensitive to domestic economic growth.
• EURPLN – Euro to Polish Zloty currency pair, reflects cross-border trade and capital flows.
• USDPLN – US Dollar to Polish Zloty, tracks global risk sentiment and capital movements.
• PKOB – Major Polish bank stock, impacted by credit growth and monetary policy.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk barometer in emerging markets including Poland.

FAQs

What does Poland’s latest GDP QoQ figure indicate?

The 0.90% QoQ growth suggests stable economic expansion, slightly above expectations, signaling resilience amid global uncertainties.

How does this GDP reading affect monetary policy?

The figure supports the National Bank of Poland’s current cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support.

What are the main risks to Poland’s growth outlook?

Key risks include external shocks, geopolitical tensions, and potential tightening of fiscal or monetary policies.

Key takeaway: Poland’s economy is on a steady growth path, with 0.90% QoQ GDP expansion reinforcing confidence but requiring vigilance on external and policy risks.