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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.9% in Q3 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
Poland Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.9% in Q3 2025, released December 2025, up 0.1% from June's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.95%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.6
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Poland) was reported at 0.5% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77%, ranging from 0.5% to 1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, down from the prior three at 0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/PLN (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - PL
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Poland
DEFINITION
Poland's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.600000% in May, beating the 0.500000% estimate. This marks a slowdown from April's 1.000000% growth, indicating a deceleration in economic expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank signals amid this moderation. Updated 6/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/PLN (Bearish USD, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 47.5 | 47.60 | Low | |