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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Poland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.9% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.4% from March's 3.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.8% consensus. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 3.9
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Poland) was reported at 3.9% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.73%, ranging from 3.4% to 4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.73%, unchanged from the prior three. In August readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 3.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with USD/PLN, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PL
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Poland's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 3.900000% in August 2026, beating the 3.800000% estimate and up from July's 3.500000%. This marks continued economic expansion with growth accelerating compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank policy amid this stronger growth backdrop. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.9 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.25 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Consumer Confidence | -11.3 | -12 | -11.40 | Low | |