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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 3.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Poland Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 3.5% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from March's 4.0% reading. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.3%.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.4
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/PLN | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Poland) was reported at 3.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.6%, ranging from 3.4% to 4% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/PLN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PL
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Poland's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May came in at 3.5%, beating the 3.4% estimate but down from April's 4.0%. The data shows a deceleration in growth compared to the previous month, indicating a cooling trend in economic expansion. Market participants will watch upcoming releases closely as the central bank maintains a cautious stance amid slowing momentum. Updated 6/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/PLN (Bullish USD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.