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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.6% from August's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.1% consensus by 1.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.65%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 4.7%, vs 4.93% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
3.1
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.53
Actual: 4.6
Error: -2.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Poland) was reported at 4.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.1% by 1.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.09%, ranging from -1.5% to 7.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.67%, down from the prior three at 4.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.65%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.68%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 3.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - PL
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About Industrial Production YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.6 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |