Poland’s Industrial Production YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key takeaways: Poland’s Industrial Production YoY growth slowed to 3.20% in November 2025, down from a sharp 7.40% in October but above the 2.50% consensus. This marks a moderation after a volatile rebound from negative territory earlier this year. The data reflects ongoing supply chain normalization and cautious demand amid mixed macro signals. Monetary policy remains vigilant as inflation pressures persist, while external risks from geopolitical tensions and energy prices cloud the outlook. Financial markets showed muted reaction, signaling balanced sentiment. Structural shifts toward higher-value manufacturing and green tech continue to underpin long-term growth.
Table of Contents
- Big-Picture Snapshot
- Foundational Indicators
- Chart Dynamics
- Forward Outlook
- Closing Thoughts
- Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Poland’s industrial production growth for November 2025 registered at 3.20% YoY, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure marks a significant slowdown from October’s 7.40% surge but remains comfortably above the 2.50% market estimate. The data signals a continued recovery trajectory following a turbulent start to the year, when production contracted by as much as -2% in March 2025.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output growth moderated amid easing supply chain disruptions.
- Energy-intensive sectors showed resilience despite higher input costs.
- Automotive and machinery production contributed positively but at a slower pace.
Policy pulse
The 3.20% growth sits below the recent peak but above the 12-month average of 1.90%, suggesting moderate expansion. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PLN/USD pair showed a mild 0.10% appreciation post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 3 basis points, reflecting tempered optimism.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Poland’s manufacturing and energy sectors. The 3.20% YoY growth in November 2025 contrasts with the sharp contraction of -1.50% recorded in December 2024 and the negative prints in early 2025. This rebound aligns with improving PMI readings and steady GDP growth, which hovered around 3.50% in Q3 2025.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The NBP’s key interest rate currently stands at 6.75%, unchanged since September 2025. Inflation remains above target at 5.80% YoY, prompting a cautious monetary stance. Industrial production growth above 3% supports the case for a steady policy, though upside inflation risks from energy prices persist.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including infrastructure investments and green energy subsidies, have bolstered industrial activity. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting prudent spending and improved tax revenues from manufacturing sectors.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and volatile energy markets pose downside risks. Supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a factor, especially for intermediate goods. Export demand from the EU remains stable but sensitive to global economic shifts.
This chart highlights Poland’s industrial sector trending upward after early-year declines. The recent moderation suggests a transition from rapid catch-up growth to steadier expansion, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics and ongoing structural shifts.
Drivers this month
- Automotive sector growth slowed from 9.10% in October to 4.30% in November.
- Energy production remained stable, contributing 0.50 percentage points to overall growth.
- Machinery and equipment output rose 3.70%, down from 6.00% last month.
Policy pulse
The moderation in industrial growth aligns with the NBP’s inflation targeting framework, which anticipates gradual cooling of economic activity. The data supports a wait-and-see approach for further rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PLN appreciated slightly against the EUR, while 2-year bond yields declined, reflecting market confidence in a stable monetary policy path amid moderate growth.
Looking ahead, Poland’s industrial production faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario forecasts steady growth around 2.50%–3.50% YoY over the next six months, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus and improving global demand. Bullish scenarios (20% probability) envision a rebound above 5% if supply chains fully normalize and energy costs stabilize. Conversely, bearish risks (30% probability) include renewed geopolitical tensions or energy price shocks pushing growth below 1%.
Structural & long-run trends
Poland’s industrial sector is undergoing structural transformation, with increased focus on high-tech manufacturing, automation, and green energy. These trends should enhance productivity and resilience, cushioning against cyclical downturns. The shift toward export diversification beyond the EU also reduces vulnerability to regional shocks.
Monetary & fiscal policy outlook
The NBP is expected to maintain current rates through early 2026, monitoring inflation and growth signals closely. Fiscal policy will likely continue supporting industrial modernization and energy transition projects, providing a medium-term growth anchor.
External risks
Global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties remain key downside risks. Poland’s industrial output is sensitive to EU demand and commodity price volatility, necessitating cautious risk management by policymakers and investors.
Poland’s November 2025 industrial production data confirms a moderated but sustained recovery in manufacturing activity. The 3.20% YoY growth, while slower than October’s surge, remains a positive sign amid complex macroeconomic conditions. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support, while structural reforms and fiscal investments provide a solid foundation for long-term industrial resilience.
Investors should watch for evolving geopolitical developments and energy market trends, which will shape the near-term trajectory. Overall, Poland’s industrial sector appears well-positioned to navigate current headwinds and capitalize on emerging opportunities in advanced manufacturing and green technologies.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Poland’s industrial production figures influence several key markets, including equities, currency pairs, and fixed income. The data often correlates with the performance of manufacturing-linked stocks, the Polish zloty’s strength, and bond yields. Monitoring these assets provides insight into market sentiment and economic momentum.
- CDR – A major Polish IT and manufacturing stock sensitive to industrial trends.
- EURPLN – The euro-to-zloty exchange rate reacts to industrial data reflecting economic health.
- USDCAD – Commodity-linked currency pair influenced by global industrial demand cycles.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment tied to macroeconomic data.
- PKN – Poland’s leading oil refiner, sensitive to energy price shifts impacting industrial costs.
Insight: Industrial Production vs. EURPLN Since 2020
Since 2020, Poland’s industrial production growth has shown a positive correlation with EURPLN movements. Periods of rising industrial output typically coincide with PLN appreciation against the euro, reflecting stronger economic fundamentals. For example, the rebound in late 2025 industrial data supported a 0.30% PLN gain versus EUR within days of release, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to manufacturing momentum.
FAQs
- What is Poland’s Industrial Production YoY?
- It measures the year-over-year percentage change in Poland’s industrial output, reflecting manufacturing and energy sector performance.
- How does Industrial Production affect Poland’s economy?
- It serves as a key indicator of economic health, influencing GDP growth, employment, and monetary policy decisions.
- Why is the Industrial Production YoY important for investors?
- It signals trends in manufacturing activity, impacting stock prices, currency strength, and bond yields tied to economic growth.
Key takeaway: Poland’s industrial production growth is moderating but remains robust, supporting a balanced macro outlook amid ongoing risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November’s industrial production growth of 3.20% YoY marks a deceleration from October’s 7.40% but improves on the 12-month average of 1.90%. The chart below illustrates a volatile recovery pattern since the start of 2025, with sharp contractions in Q1 followed by a strong rebound in Q4.
Compared to the previous month’s spike, the moderation reflects normalization in supply chains and cautious demand. The 3.20% figure remains well above the negative prints seen in early 2025, signaling resilience in Poland’s industrial base.