Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Poland Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in June 2026. The reading matched the 3.75% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.31%. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 3.75%, vs 4.0% in the prior 3-month window. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
3.75
Actual
3.75
Consensus
3.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.75
Actual: 3.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Poland) was reported at 3.75% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.75% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.13%, ranging from 3.75% to 4.75% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.83%, down from the prior three at 4.08%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.92%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/PLN (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Interest Rate Decision - PL
Loading chart data...
About Interest Rate Decision — Poland
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.75 %, consensus 3.75 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.75 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/PLN (Bearish EUR, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.