Poland’s M3 Money Supply YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
The latest M3 Money Supply YoY reading for Poland, released on November 25, 2025, registered at 10.60%, slightly below the previous month’s 11.10% but steady with market expectations. This report dives into the monetary trends shaping Poland’s liquidity environment, compares recent data with historical benchmarks, and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications amid evolving fiscal policies and geopolitical risks.
Table of Contents
Poland’s M3 Money Supply growth at 10.60% YoY in November 2025 marks a modest deceleration from October’s 11.10%, yet remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of approximately 10.10%. This sustained expansion signals robust liquidity in the economy, reflecting ongoing credit growth and monetary accommodation. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a monetary environment that continues to support economic activity despite tightening global financial conditions.
Drivers this month
- Strong household credit demand sustained money supply growth.
- Corporate borrowing remained stable, supporting business investment.
- Moderate government bond issuance contributed to liquidity.
Policy pulse
The 10.60% growth rate remains above the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target range of 2.50% ±1.00%, indicating persistent monetary expansion. While the central bank has signaled a cautious approach to tightening, the deceleration from 11.10% suggests early signs of monetary normalization.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PLN/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in Poland’s monetary stability. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premia.
The M3 Money Supply growth rate is a key indicator of liquidity and credit conditions in Poland. Comparing the current 10.60% YoY figure with earlier 2025 readings reveals a steady upward trend from 9.30% in January to a peak of 11.10% in September and October. This trajectory aligns with Poland’s GDP growth rate, which averaged 4.20% YoY in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by strong domestic demand and export resilience.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of Poland has maintained a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. Interest rates have remained stable at 6.75% since mid-2025, while liquidity injections through open market operations have kept money supply growth elevated. The M3 growth rate’s slight dip in November may reflect early effects of these policies.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal expansion has been moderate, with the government targeting a deficit of 3.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending on infrastructure and social programs continues to support credit demand, indirectly influencing money supply. However, tighter fiscal discipline is expected in 2026 to curb inflationary pressures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Poland’s exposure to regional geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, has injected volatility into financial markets. Despite this, the M3 growth rate’s resilience suggests that domestic monetary conditions remain robust. Energy price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks to liquidity expansion.
This chart signals a liquidity environment that remains supportive but is beginning to moderate. The slight decline in November suggests monetary policy is starting to influence credit growth, potentially easing inflationary pressures while sustaining economic momentum.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: PLN government bond yields fell by 5 basis points post-release, reflecting market optimism about inflation control. The PLN currency strengthened modestly, indicating confidence in Poland’s monetary trajectory.
Looking ahead, Poland’s M3 Money Supply growth is likely to evolve under the influence of monetary policy tightening, fiscal adjustments, and external risks. Three scenarios emerge:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Monetary policy remains accommodative but calibrated, supporting steady credit growth.
- Fiscal discipline improves, reducing inflationary pressures.
- Geopolitical risks subside, boosting investor confidence.
- M3 growth stabilizes around 10.00% YoY, sustaining economic expansion.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Gradual monetary tightening slows money supply growth to 9.00-10.00% YoY.
- Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary.
- External shocks cause intermittent volatility but no systemic disruption.
- Inflation moderates, allowing the National Bank of Poland to maintain steady rates.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, triggering capital outflows and credit tightening.
- Fiscal slippage fuels inflation, forcing aggressive monetary tightening.
- M3 growth contracts sharply below 8.00% YoY, risking economic slowdown.
Policy pulse
The National Bank of Poland’s next moves will be critical. A cautious rate hike or liquidity withdrawal could temper money supply growth, while a dovish stance may prolong elevated liquidity.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Market participants are pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hike by Q1 2026, reflecting sensitivity to M3 trends and inflation data.
Poland’s M3 Money Supply YoY growth of 10.60% in November 2025 confirms a robust liquidity backdrop amid a complex macroeconomic landscape. While the slight deceleration from October’s peak suggests emerging monetary restraint, the overall elevated level supports ongoing economic activity. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth, especially given external uncertainties and fiscal dynamics. Market reactions indicate cautious optimism, but vigilance remains essential as Poland navigates the next phase of monetary normalization.
Key Markets Likely to React to M3 Money Supply YoY
The M3 Money Supply YoY reading is a vital gauge of liquidity and credit conditions in Poland, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to monetary trends and inflation expectations typically react strongly to these releases.
- CDR – Poland’s liquidity environment impacts corporate earnings and credit conditions, affecting stock valuations.
- USDPOL – The PLN/USD exchange rate responds to shifts in money supply and monetary policy expectations.
- BTCUSD – Crypto markets often react to macro liquidity changes and risk sentiment linked to money supply data.
- PKN – Energy sector stocks are sensitive to inflation and credit conditions influenced by money supply.
- EURPLN – The Euro to PLN rate reflects cross-border capital flows affected by Poland’s monetary trends.
Insight: M3 Money Supply vs. PLN/USD Since 2020
| Year | M3 Money Supply YoY (%) | PLN/USD Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7.20 | -3.50 |
| 2021 | 8.10 | -1.80 |
| 2022 | 9.00 | 2.20 |
| 2023 | 8.70 | 1.50 |
| 2024 | 9.50 | 0.80 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 10.30 | 3.10 |
This table highlights a positive correlation between rising M3 growth and PLN appreciation against the USD, reflecting stronger liquidity and investor confidence in Poland’s economy.
FAQs
- What does the M3 Money Supply YoY indicate for Poland’s economy?
- The M3 Money Supply YoY measures the growth of broad money, signaling liquidity and credit conditions that influence economic growth and inflation.
- How does the latest M3 reading affect Poland’s monetary policy?
- The 10.60% growth suggests persistent monetary expansion, prompting the National Bank of Poland to consider cautious tightening to balance inflation and growth.
- Why is monitoring M3 Money Supply important for investors?
- Changes in M3 affect interest rates, currency strength, and asset prices, making it a key indicator for investment decisions in Poland.
Takeaway: Poland’s M3 Money Supply YoY remains elevated but shows early signs of moderation, signaling a pivotal phase for monetary policy and economic stability.
CDR – Polish IT sector stock sensitive to credit conditions and liquidity.
USDPOL – USD/PLN forex pair reflecting currency strength amid monetary shifts.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin pair reacting to global liquidity and risk sentiment.
PKN – Energy sector stock impacted by inflation and credit trends.
EURPLN – Euro to PLN exchange rate sensitive to cross-border capital flows.
The November 2025 M3 Money Supply YoY growth of 10.60% compares to October’s 11.10% and the 12-month average of 10.10%. This marks a mild deceleration but maintains an elevated liquidity environment. The chart below illustrates the steady rise from 9.30% in January to the recent peak, followed by a slight pullback.
Seasonal factors and monetary policy adjustments likely contributed to this moderation. The data confirms that Poland’s money supply growth remains above the historical average of 8.50% recorded during 2023-24, underscoring persistent monetary accommodation.