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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Poland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.5% from June's 11.8% reading. The reading matched the 11.6% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.75%. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.3
Actual
11.6
Consensus
11.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 11.4
Actual: 11.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (Poland) was reported at 11.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 11.6% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.78%, ranging from 10% to 11.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.2%, up from the prior three at 10.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.29%). In August readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 10.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.22%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - PL
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 11.3 %, consensus 11.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 11 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | PL | Balance of Trade | -1843 | -1469 | -1200 | -1521.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | PL | Current Account | -2419 | -2216 | -2341 | -2380.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |