Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Poland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.2% from March's 11.5% reading. The reading matched the 11.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.63%. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 11.05%, vs 10.25% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.3
Actual
11.2
Consensus
11.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 11.55
Actual: 11.3
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (Poland) was reported at 11.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.69%, ranging from 10% to 11.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.83%, up from the prior three at 10.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.07%). In May readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 9.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.22%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
M3 Money Supply YoY - PL
Loading chart data...
About M3 Money Supply YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 11.3 %, consensus 11.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 10.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 10.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.