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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland M3 Money Supply YoY climbed to 12.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland M3 Money Supply YoY climbed to 12.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.2% from August's 11.3% reading. The print exceeded the 11.4% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.81%. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 11.3%, vs 11.15% in the prior 3-month window. M3 Money Supply YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
12.5
Actual
11.4
Consensus
11.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 11.35
Actual: 12.5
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (Poland) was reported at 12.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.4% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.93%, ranging from 10% to 12.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.7%, up from the prior three at 10.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.64%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.02%). In October readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 10.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - PL
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 12.5 %, consensus 11.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 11.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 11.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |