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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.0% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Poland M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 11.0% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from April's 11.3% reading. The reading matched the 11.4% consensus. M3 Money Supply YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 11.4%, vs 10.25% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11
Actual
11.4
Consensus
11.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 11.63
Actual: 11
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (Poland) was reported at 11% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 11.4% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.74%, ranging from 10% to 11.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.97%, up from the prior three at 10.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.22%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - PL
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 11 %, consensus 11.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 11.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 10.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |