The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY for Poland, released on November 24, 2025, shows a sharp contraction of -2.20%, deepening from October’s -1.20% and missing the -1.80% forecast. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the entire Polish economy’s producer prices over the past 12 months, reflecting input cost trends before consumer prices adjust.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices continued their decline, contributing approximately -0.90 percentage points to the PPI drop.
• Manufacturing sectors, especially metals and chemicals, saw weaker pricing power amid subdued demand.
• A stronger PLN exchange rate against major currencies reduced import costs, further pressuring producer prices.

Policy pulse

With the PPI falling well below zero, the reading sits comfortably below the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target range of 2.50% ±1pp. This signals easing upstream inflation pressures, potentially reducing the urgency for further monetary tightening in the near term.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN appreciated 0.30% versus the EUR in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of a more dovish monetary stance.

Poland’s PPI YoY has trended downward since early 2025, with the November print at -2.20% marking the lowest level since February 2025’s -0.90%. Historically, the PPI hovered near zero or slightly negative during 2024, but the current pace of decline is unprecedented in recent years.

Historical comparisons

• February 2025: -0.90% YoY
• June 2025: -1.50% YoY
• October 2025: -1.20% YoY

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has maintained a cautious approach, balancing inflation control with growth support. The sharp PPI decline reduces input cost pressures, potentially allowing the NBP to pause or slow rate hikes. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with credit spreads narrowing and the PLN strengthening.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs. Lower producer prices may ease cost pressures on public projects but could also signal weaker corporate revenues, impacting tax receipts.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD strengthened by 0.25%, while 2-year Polish government bond yields fell 5 basis points, reflecting market expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy path.

Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory suggests several scenarios for Poland’s economy and policy environment:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued PPI decline leads to easing inflation, allowing NBP to cut rates by mid-2026.
• Stronger PLN and stable global commodity prices support lower input costs.
• Fiscal stimulus boosts domestic demand, offsetting deflation risks.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• PPI stabilizes around -1.50% YoY in early 2026, with moderate inflation pressures.
• NBP maintains current rates, monitoring inflation and growth signals closely.
• External shocks remain contained, supporting steady economic growth.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Further PPI declines signal deeper deflation, pressuring corporate margins and investment.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, weakening demand and supply chains.
• Fiscal constraints limit government support, exacerbating slowdown risks.

Structural & long-run trends

Poland’s economy is gradually transitioning towards higher value-added manufacturing and services. Persistent PPI declines may reflect structural shifts, including automation and energy efficiency gains. However, long-term inflation targeting and fiscal prudence remain key to sustaining growth and price stability.

The November 2025 PPI YoY print of -2.20% signals a notable cooling in producer price pressures in Poland. While this eases inflation concerns, it raises questions about growth momentum and corporate profitability. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act amid evolving external risks and domestic structural changes. Financial markets have priced in a more dovish stance, but vigilance remains essential as global commodity prices and geopolitical factors evolve.

Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index YoY

The PPI YoY is a critical indicator for markets sensitive to inflation and economic growth in Poland. Key assets include:

• CDR – A major Polish stock sensitive to domestic economic conditions and inflation trends.
• EURPLN – The currency pair reflects market sentiment on Poland’s economic outlook and monetary policy.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations and risk sentiment globally.
• PKN – Energy sector stock influenced by commodity price shifts affecting PPI.
• USDCAD – A proxy for commodity-driven currencies, relevant for comparative inflation dynamics.

FAQs

What does the Producer Price Index YoY indicate for Poland?

The PPI YoY measures annual changes in producer prices, signaling inflationary or deflationary trends at the production level in Poland.

How does the PPI affect monetary policy in Poland?

A declining PPI reduces inflation pressures, potentially prompting the National Bank of Poland to ease or pause interest rate hikes.

Why is the PPI important for investors?

Investors use PPI data to gauge inflation trends, corporate cost pressures, and potential impacts on earnings and asset prices.

Takeaway: Poland’s steep PPI decline in November 2025 signals easing inflation but raises growth concerns, demanding careful policy calibration amid global uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/24/25