Poland’s Unemployment Rate Holds Steady at 5.60% in November 2025: A Comprehensive Analysis
Key takeaways: Poland’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.60% in November, matching market expectations and continuing a gradual upward trend since mid-2025. This stability amid rising inflation and cautious monetary policy signals a balanced labor market. External geopolitical tensions and fiscal tightening pose risks, while steady domestic demand supports employment. Forward scenarios range from modest improvement to potential deterioration depending on global shocks and policy responses.
Table of Contents
Poland’s unemployment rate for November 2025 was reported at 5.60%, unchanged from October and in line with the Sigmanomics database consensus. This figure marks a moderate rise from the 5.00% low recorded in June 2025, reflecting a gradual softening of the labor market over the past five months. The rate remains below the 12-month average of approximately 5.30%, indicating a still relatively tight labor market despite recent pressures.
Drivers this month
- Stable domestic consumption supporting job retention in services and manufacturing.
- Seasonal hiring plateauing after summer peaks.
- Rising inflation dampening real wage growth, limiting new hiring incentives.
Policy pulse
The unemployment rate sits near the central bank’s estimated natural rate, suggesting limited slack. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, keeping interest rates steady to balance inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: PLN/USD remained stable within 0.10% post-release, while 2-year Polish government bond yields held steady, reflecting market confidence in labor market stability.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the unemployment reading. Poland’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.10% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 3.00% in Q2, signaling cooling momentum. Inflation remains elevated at 7.80% YoY, pressuring real incomes and consumer spending. Wage growth has moderated to 4.50% YoY, insufficient to offset inflation fully.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The NBP has kept the reference rate at 6.75% since September 2025, prioritizing inflation containment. Credit growth has slowed, with tighter lending standards reflecting cautious financial conditions. The zloty has shown resilience, supported by stable foreign reserves and moderate capital inflows.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening continues, with the government targeting a deficit reduction to 2.50% of GDP in 2025 from 3.10% in 2024. Spending cuts in infrastructure and social programs may weigh on near-term employment, though targeted support for SMEs aims to mitigate job losses.
Historical comparisons show that the current 5.60% rate is higher than the 4.80% average seen in 2024 but remains below the 6.20% peak during the 2023 global slowdown. The steady plateau suggests labor market resilience despite external pressures.
This chart highlights a labor market trending toward stabilization after mid-year softening. The steady unemployment rate signals balanced supply and demand for labor, with risks tilted toward moderate deterioration if inflation and fiscal tightening persist.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Polish zloty (PLN) showed minimal volatility, while the WIG20 index dipped 0.30% in the hour following the release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid mixed economic signals.
Looking ahead, Poland’s unemployment rate trajectory depends on several factors. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation eases faster than expected, boosting real wages and consumption.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit and investment.
- Unemployment falls to 5.20% by mid-2026, reflecting stronger labor demand.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation remains sticky around 7%, constraining wage growth.
- Fiscal consolidation continues, mildly restraining job creation.
- Unemployment stays near 5.60% through early 2026, with minor fluctuations.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks from geopolitical tensions disrupt trade and investment.
- Inflation spikes further, eroding consumer confidence and hiring.
- Unemployment rises above 6.00% by Q3 2026, signaling labor market stress.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Poland’s labor market faces structural challenges including demographic aging and skill mismatches. Long-term unemployment remains low, but participation rates could decline without policy intervention. Automation and digitalization may reshape employment patterns, requiring workforce upskilling.
In conclusion, Poland’s unemployment rate holding steady at 5.60% reflects a labor market balancing inflationary pressures, fiscal tightening, and external risks. While the current stability is reassuring, vigilance is warranted given global uncertainties and domestic policy shifts. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms will determine the labor market’s resilience in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is closely watched by investors in Polish equities, currency, and bonds. The following symbols historically track labor market shifts:
- WIG20 – Poland’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to economic growth and employment trends.
- USDPOL – USD/PLN forex pair, reflecting currency strength amid economic data releases.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often reacting to risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic stability.
- PKN – Major Polish oil refiner, sensitive to economic cycles and employment in industrial sectors.
- EURPLN – Euro to Polish zloty, influenced by regional economic conditions and labor market data.
Indicator vs. WIG20 Since 2020
Since 2020, Poland’s unemployment rate and the WIG20 index have shown an inverse relationship. Periods of rising unemployment, such as during the 2023 global slowdown, coincided with WIG20 declines. Conversely, falling unemployment supported equity gains. This dynamic underscores the importance of labor market health for investor confidence in Polish equities.
FAQs
- What is the current unemployment rate in Poland?
- The latest figure for November 2025 is 5.60%, unchanged from October and in line with expectations.
- How does the unemployment rate affect Poland’s economy?
- It reflects labor market health, influencing consumer spending, inflation, and monetary policy decisions.
- What are the risks to Poland’s labor market outlook?
- Risks include persistent inflation, fiscal tightening, and external geopolitical shocks that could raise unemployment.
Takeaway: Poland’s steady unemployment rate signals a balanced labor market amid inflation and fiscal challenges, but vigilance is needed to navigate upcoming risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The unemployment rate in Poland has held steady at 5.60% in November 2025, unchanged from October and above the 12-month average of 5.30%. This marks a reversal from the mid-year low of 5.00% in June, indicating a mild softening in labor market conditions.
Comparing recent months, the rate rose steadily from 5.00% in June to 5.60% in October and November, reflecting seasonal adjustments and economic headwinds such as inflation and fiscal tightening.