November 2025 Balance of Trade Report for PS: A Data-Driven Analysis
The latest Balance of Trade (BoT) data for PS, released on November 24, 2025, reveals a deficit of -491.10 million ILS. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, beats the consensus estimate of -560 million ILS and marks a slight deterioration from the previous month’s -476.60 million ILS. This report contextualizes the current trade dynamics within broader macroeconomic trends, monetary and fiscal policies, and external risks. It also offers a forward-looking assessment of PS’s economic trajectory amid evolving global conditions.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 Balance of Trade for PS shows a deficit of -491.10 million ILS, slightly worse than October’s -476.60 million but better than the expected -560 million. Over the past 12 months, the average deficit has hovered around -480 million ILS, indicating persistent trade imbalances. This month’s reading reflects ongoing external pressures and domestic economic adjustments.
Drivers this month
- Exports contracted by 1.20% MoM, pressured by weaker demand in key European markets.
- Imports rose 0.80% MoM, driven by higher energy and intermediate goods purchases.
- Currency fluctuations, with the ILS weakening 0.50% against the USD, partially offset export losses.
Policy pulse
The BoT deficit remains above the central bank’s comfort zone, which targets a sustainable trade gap aligned with 2% GDP growth. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, with the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.25%, balancing inflation containment and growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ILS depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over trade deficits and external vulnerabilities.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the trade balance reveal mixed signals. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised down to 2.10% YoY from 2.40%, reflecting softer export performance. Inflation remains elevated at 4.30% YoY, pressuring real incomes and import costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s steady policy rate of 3.25% aims to temper inflation without stifling growth. Credit growth slowed to 5.50% YoY, indicating cautious lending amid global uncertainties. The yield curve flattened, with 2-year yields at 3.40% and 10-year yields at 3.80%, signaling moderate market risk appetite.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits narrowed to 3.20% of GDP in Q3, aided by improved tax collection and restrained spending. However, government debt remains elevated at 65% of GDP, limiting fiscal space to counter external shocks.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened tensions in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions from Asia continue to weigh on trade flows. Energy price volatility remains a key risk, with oil prices fluctuating between $75 and $85 per barrel over the past month.
Historical comparisons highlight that the current deficit is larger than the -388.40 million recorded in August 2025 but smaller than the -526.20 million in September 2025. This volatility reflects external demand shocks and fluctuating commodity prices.
This chart underscores a trade deficit that is trending slightly upward after a two-month dip. The persistent gap suggests structural challenges in export competitiveness and import dependency, requiring policy attention to rebalance trade sustainably.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ILS weakened 0.40% against the USD shortly after the release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting investor caution on external imbalances.
Looking ahead, the Balance of Trade for PS faces multiple scenarios shaped by global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global economic recovery accelerates, boosting export volumes by 5% YoY.
- Energy prices stabilize below $75/barrel, reducing import costs.
- ILS strengthens by 3%, improving purchasing power and trade terms.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate export growth of 2% YoY amid uneven global demand.
- Energy prices remain volatile but average near $80/barrel.
- Trade deficit stabilizes around -490 million ILS monthly.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Global slowdown deepens, exports contract by 3% YoY.
- Energy prices surge above $90/barrel, inflating import bills.
- ILS depreciates further by 5%, increasing inflationary pressures.
Policy measures focusing on export diversification and import substitution could mitigate downside risks. Continued monitoring of geopolitical developments and commodity markets remains critical.
The November 2025 Balance of Trade data for PS confirms a persistent trade deficit, slightly wider than the previous month but better than market expectations. Structural challenges, including reliance on energy imports and export market concentration, continue to weigh on the trade balance. Monetary and fiscal policies are calibrated to support growth while managing inflation and external vulnerabilities.
Going forward, the interplay of global demand, commodity prices, and currency movements will shape PS’s trade trajectory. Policymakers must balance short-term stabilization with long-term structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and reduce external imbalances.
In sum, the trade deficit remains a key macroeconomic risk, but manageable within current policy frameworks, provided external shocks do not intensify.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is a critical indicator for currency, equity, and commodity markets in PS. Changes in trade flows influence the ILS exchange rate, government bond yields, and export-oriented stocks. Investors closely watch this data to gauge external demand and inflationary pressures.
- USDPSE – The USD/ILS pair reacts strongly to trade deficits, with widening gaps often weakening the ILS.
- PSX – Major export companies listed here are sensitive to trade performance and currency shifts.
- ENRG – Energy sector stocks correlate with import cost fluctuations driven by oil prices.
- BTCPSE – Cryptocurrency markets in PS show moderate correlation with macroeconomic sentiment linked to trade data.
- EUREPSE – EUR/ILS pair reflects trade relations with Europe, a key export destination.
Indicator vs. USDPSE Since 2020
Since 2020, the Balance of Trade deficit in PS has shown a strong inverse correlation with the USDPSE exchange rate. Periods of widening deficits coincide with ILS depreciation against the USD, as seen during the 2023 energy price shocks and the 2024 geopolitical tensions. This relationship highlights the sensitivity of PS’s currency to external trade pressures and underscores the importance of trade data for forex market participants.
FAQ
- What does the Balance of Trade indicate for PS’s economy?
- The Balance of Trade measures the difference between exports and imports. A persistent deficit suggests reliance on foreign goods and potential currency pressures.
- How does the Balance of Trade affect monetary policy in PS?
- Trade deficits can influence inflation and currency stability, guiding the central bank’s interest rate decisions to balance growth and price stability.
- What are the main risks to PS’s trade balance outlook?
- Key risks include global demand shocks, energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations impacting export competitiveness.
Key takeaway: PS’s November 2025 trade deficit remains elevated but better than expected, signaling ongoing external challenges amid cautious policy support.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 trade deficit of -491.10 million ILS compares to October’s -476.60 million and the 12-month average of -480 million. This signals a modest widening of the deficit after a brief improvement in October. The trend remains consistent with a persistent trade gap averaging around -480 million ILS since April 2025.
Monthly data shows export values declining by 1.20%, while imports increased by 0.80%, driven largely by energy and intermediate goods. The ILS depreciation of 0.50% against the USD provided some relief to exporters but was insufficient to reverse the deficit trend.