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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Balance of Trade climbed to -2,811M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Balance of Trade climbed to -2,811M in May 2026, released July 2026, up 85M from April's -2,896M reading. The reading matched the -2,920M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 406M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -2,873M, vs -2,642.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2811
Actual
-2920
Consensus
-2896
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±389.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -2,826.5
Actual: -2,811
Error: -15.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Portugal) was reported at -2,811.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -2,920.00 million by 109.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -2,896.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2,708.30 million, ranging from -3,293.00 million to -1,991.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2,734.67 million, down from the prior three at -2,555.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 345.30 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 450.04 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -2,754.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 389.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PT
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About Balance of Trade — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -2,811 M, consensus -2,920 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -2,883 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -2,863 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.86) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.30 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | 0.93 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -3.8 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.00 | Low |
| 16:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -6.7 | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low | |