Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Balance of Trade fell to -2,991M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Balance of Trade fell to -2,991M in August 2026, released October 2026, down 14M from July's -2,977M reading. The print exceeded the -3,250M consensus by 259M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -3,342M, vs -2,852.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2991
Actual
-3250
Consensus
-2977
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±539 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -3,246
Actual: -2,991
Error: -255
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Portugal) was reported at -2,991.00 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3,250.00 million by 259.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -2,977.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2,813.40 million, ranging from -3,632.00 million to -1,991.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3,225.00 million, down from the prior three at -2,734.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 398.25 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 471.32 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -2,871.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 539.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - PT
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -2,991 M, consensus -3,250 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3,052 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -3,632 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |