Portugal’s Trade Deficit Narrows in February as Imports Drop Sharply
Portugal’s balance of trade posted a deficit of EUR 2,510 million in February 2026, according to official data released March 12. This marks a significant improvement from January’s EUR 2,871 million shortfall. The latest reading is also below the 12-month average deficit of EUR 2,729 million, reflecting a continued trend of narrowing trade gaps since late 2025.[1]
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Imports: -12.6% MoM
- Exports: -9.2% MoM
- Energy imports: -0.22pp
- Machinery exports: -0.11pp
Policy Pulse
Portugal’s trade deficit remains above the government’s medium-term target of EUR 2,000 million per month, but the gap narrowed for the second consecutive month.
Market Lens
Euro steadied against major peers after the release. Market participants viewed the smaller deficit as a modest positive, but the underlying contraction in both exports and imports tempered enthusiasm. The narrowing gap reflects weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices, rather than a surge in external competitiveness.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers This Month
- January deficit: EUR 2,871 million
- December deficit: EUR 2,805 million
- November deficit: EUR 2,588 million
- 12-month average: EUR 2,729 million
Policy Pulse
Portugal’s trade balance has fluctuated between EUR 1,991 million and EUR 3,293 million over the past eight months. The February reading is the third lowest since July 2025, signaling incremental progress toward fiscal targets.
Market Lens
Bond yields held steady following the data. Investors focused on the persistent deficit, but the improvement from January’s level was seen as a step in the right direction. The market remains cautious, awaiting further evidence of sustained export growth.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Sustained import moderation and a rebound in exports could push the deficit below EUR 2,000 million in coming months.
- Base (55–65%): The deficit stabilizes near the 12-month average, fluctuating between EUR 2,500 million and EUR 2,800 million as global demand remains mixed.
- Bearish (10–20%): A renewed rise in energy prices or weaker eurozone demand could widen the deficit back toward the September 2025 peak.
Policy Pulse
The government’s trade strategy focuses on export diversification and energy transition. February’s data suggest incremental progress, but the persistent deficit underscores structural challenges.
Market Lens
Equities in Lisbon were little changed post-release. Investors are watching for signs of export recovery and further import restraint before reassessing Portugal’s external position.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers This Month
- Energy imports: largest contributor to narrowing deficit
- Machinery exports: continued softness
- Consumer goods: stable YoY
Policy Pulse
February’s improvement is a positive sign, but Portugal’s trade deficit remains above official targets. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and narrowing external imbalances.
Market Lens
Currency and bond markets took the data in stride. The focus now shifts to March figures and the durability of the recent improvement in trade dynamics.
Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
Portugal’s trade data influences a range of asset classes, from equities and bonds to forex and crypto. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to shifts in Portugal’s external balance. Each reflects a different aspect of market reaction, from currency moves to global risk sentiment.
- AAPL — Apple’s European sales are exposed to eurozone demand shifts, including Portugal’s trade flows.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair often reacts to eurozone trade data, with Portugal’s figures contributing to broader sentiment.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk appetite shifts following European macro releases.
| Indicator | Symbol | 2020 Deficit | 2026 Deficit | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade (PT) | EURUSD | -1,800M | -2,510M | Moderate negative |
Since 2020, Portugal’s widening trade deficit has coincided with periods of euro weakness versus the dollar, though the relationship is influenced by broader eurozone trends.
FAQ: Portugal’s Trade Deficit Narrows in February as Imports Drop Sharply
- What is Portugal’s latest balance of trade figure?
- Portugal recorded a trade deficit of EUR 2,510 million in February 2026, an improvement from January’s EUR 2,871 million.
- How does the February trade deficit compare to the 12-month average?
- The February deficit is EUR 219 million below the 12-month average of EUR 2,729 million, reflecting a narrowing trend.
- What factors drove the change in Portugal’s trade balance this month?
- Both exports and imports declined, but imports fell more sharply, especially in energy and capital goods, narrowing the deficit.
Portugal’s trade deficit narrowed in February, but structural challenges remain for policymakers and investors.
Updated 3/12/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data Portal, Portugal Balance of Trade, accessed March 12, 2026.
February’s trade deficit of EUR 2,510 million compares to January’s EUR 2,871 million and a 12-month average of EUR 2,729 million. The deficit has narrowed by EUR 361 million MoM, reversing part of January’s deterioration. Over the past six months, the deficit peaked at EUR 3,293 million in September 2025 and has since trended downward, with only one significant uptick in January.
Portugal’s trade gap is now EUR 783 million lower than its September 2025 high. The improvement is driven by a sharper drop in imports relative to exports, particularly in energy and capital goods.