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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Balance of Trade climbed to -3,052M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Portugal Balance of Trade climbed to -3,052M in July 2026, released September 2026, up 527M from June's -3,579M reading. The print exceeded the -3,720M consensus by 668M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -2,814.67M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -3,221.5M, vs -2,764M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3052
Actual
-3720
Consensus
-3579
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±539 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -3,855.75
Actual: -3,052
Error: -803.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Portugal) was reported at -3,052.00 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3,720.00 million by 668.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -3,579.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2,812.60 million, ranging from -3,632.00 million to -1,991.00 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3,165.00 million, down from the prior three at -2,754.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 397.90 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 457.77 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -2,810.00 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 539.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PT
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About Balance of Trade — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -3,052 M, consensus -3,720 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -3,632 M. Before that (May 2026): -2,811 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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