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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Budget Balance fell to -2.4B in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Budget Balance fell to -2.4B in March 2026, released May 2026, down 1.2B from February's -1.2B reading. The reading missed the -2.1B consensus by 0.3B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -4.02B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -1B, vs -6.32B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.4
Actual
-2.1
Consensus
-1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.97 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2026
Predicted: -1.02
Actual: -1.2
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The May 2026 reading fell from the previous value of -1.2. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.97. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500) and negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU).
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Budget Balance - PT
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