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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Budget Balance fell to -7.3B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Budget Balance fell to -7.3B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1B from July's -6.3B reading. The reading matched the -7.1B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -4.78B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -6.43B, vs -3.9B in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-7.3
Actual
-7.1
Consensus
-6.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.66 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -7.02
Actual: -7.3
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Portugal) was reported at -7.30 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -7.10 billion by 0.20 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -6.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.72 billion, ranging from -7.50 billion to -0.60 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.77 billion, down from the prior three at -2.40 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.57 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.75 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -5.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.66 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - PT
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About Budget Balance — Portugal
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -7.3 B, consensus -7.1 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -6.3 B. Before that (Jun 2026): -6.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |