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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Business Confidence held to 2.7% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Business Confidence held to 2.7% in May 2026. The print exceeded the 2.4% consensus by 0.3%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 2.6%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.35
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Portugal) was reported at 2.7% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.4% by 0.3%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.85%, ranging from 2.6% to 3.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, down from the prior three at 3.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 2.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - PT
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About Business Confidence — Portugal
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.