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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Consumer Confidence fell to -27.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Consumer Confidence fell to -27.1% in May 2026, down 3.2% from April's -23.9% reading. The reading matched the -26.0% consensus. Consumer Confidence has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -21.3%, vs -14.83% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 28 months.
Latest Release
-27.1
Actual
-26
Consensus
-23.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -27.35
Actual: -27.1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Portugal) was reported at -27.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -26% by 1.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -23.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -17.04%, ranging from -27.1% to -14.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -20.37%, down from the prior three at -14.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.54%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged -21.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PT
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About Consumer Confidence — Portugal
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -27.1 %, consensus -26 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -23.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -18.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.