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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Consumer Confidence climbed to -22.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Consumer Confidence climbed to -22.6% in July 2026, up 3.3% from June's -25.9% reading. The print exceeded the -26.4% consensus by 3.8%. Consumer Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -26.5%, vs -19.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-22.6
Actual
-26.4
Consensus
-25.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.99 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -26.65
Actual: -22.6
Error: -4.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Portugal) was reported at -22.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -26.4% by 3.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -25.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -18.42%, ranging from -27.1% to -14.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -25.2%, down from the prior three at -16.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.59%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged -17.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.99%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PT
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About Consumer Confidence — Portugal
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -22.6 %, consensus -26.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -25.9 %. Before that (May 2026): -27.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |