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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Current Account fell to -632.82M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Current Account fell to -632.82M in May 2026, released July 2026, down 983.23M from April's 350.41M reading. The reading missed the -340M consensus by 292.82M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 378.14M. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged 222.19M, vs -215.14M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-632.82
Actual
-340
Consensus
350.41
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±516.2 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -278.91
Actual: -632.82
Error: +353.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Portugal) was reported at -632.82 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -340.00 million by 292.82 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 350.41 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 448.42 million, ranging from -632.82 million to 1,551.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -62.81 million, down from the prior three at -15.97 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 645.43 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 702.91 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -615.01 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 516.20 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Current Account - PT
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About Current Account — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -632.8 M, consensus -340 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.265 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 93.97 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |