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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Current Account climbed to 93.97M in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Portugal Current Account climbed to 93.97M in March 2026, released May 2026, up 500.95M from February's -406.98M reading. The print exceeded the -120M consensus by 213.97M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 280.24M. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged -135.64M, vs 83.65M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
93.97
Actual
-120
Consensus
-406.98
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±516.2 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -386.45
Actual: 93.97
Error: -480.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Portugal) was reported at 93.97 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -120.00 million by 213.97 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -406.98 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 458.22 million, ranging from -365.21 million to 1,551.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 38.29 million, down from the prior three at 545.40 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 612.82 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 768.41 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged 133.32 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 516.20 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Current Account - PT
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About Current Account — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 93.97 M, consensus -120 M. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -0.271 M. Before that (Jan 2026): 17.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.