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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production MoM climbed to -0.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Portugal Industrial Production MoM climbed to -0.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 3.9% from June's -4.2% reading. The reading missed the 2.1% consensus by 2.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.55%. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
2.1
Consensus
-4.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Portugal) was reported at -0.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 2.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.5%, ranging from -3.8% to 4.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.23%, down from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.28%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.23%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - PT
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About Industrial Production MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -3.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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