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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.6% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Portugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.6% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 6.9% from March's 4.3% reading. The reading missed the -2.0% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.25%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 1.5%, vs -0.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.6
Actual
-2
Consensus
4.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1
Actual: -2.6
Error: +1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Portugal) was reported at -2.6% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.6%, ranging from -3.6% to 4.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at -1.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - PT
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About Industrial Production MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -2.6 %, consensus -2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.88) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.