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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -3.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -3.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 4.8% from May's 1.0% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 4.2%. Industrial Production MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
-3.8
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1
Actual: -2.6
Error: +1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Portugal) was reported at -3.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 4.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.6%, ranging from -3.6% to 4.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at -1.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.22%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.89%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - PT
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About Industrial Production MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -3.8 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -2.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.88) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |