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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production YoY climbed to -0.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Industrial Production YoY climbed to -0.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.9% from May's -1.6% reading. The print exceeded the -0.8% consensus by 0.1%. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 1.6%, vs -0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.7
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.5
Actual: 0
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Portugal) was reported at -0.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.88%, ranging from -4.4% to 3.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.07%, down from the prior three at 0.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.05%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.4%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - PT
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About Industrial Production YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.7 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.30 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | 0.93 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -3.8 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.00 | Low |
| 16:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -6.7 | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low | |