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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Portugal Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.3% from June's -1.1% reading. The print exceeded the -1.6% consensus by 0.2%. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.4
Actual
-1.6
Consensus
-1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1.55
Actual: -1.4
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Portugal) was reported at -1.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -4.4% to 3.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.7%, down from the prior three at -0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.07%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.32%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged -1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - PT
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About Industrial Production YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.4 %, consensus -1.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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