Portugal Producer Price Index MoM: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Table of Contents
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for Portugal increased by 0.30% month-over-month (MoM) in November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure contrasts sharply with the previous two months, which saw declines of -0.30% in October and -0.60% in September. The November print also exceeded market expectations, which forecasted a -0.40% drop. Over the past year, the average monthly PPI change stands at -0.30%, indicating persistent but moderating deflationary trends in producer prices.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices rebounded, contributing approximately 0.15 percentage points (pp) to the PPI increase.
- Intermediate goods prices rose by 0.10 pp, reflecting easing supply chain constraints.
- Durable goods prices remained flat, exerting minimal influence.
Policy pulse
The PPI reading remains below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target of 2%, signaling subdued upstream inflation pressures. This supports a cautious stance in monetary policy, with the ECB likely to maintain current rates while monitoring inflation dynamics closely.
Market lens
Following the release, the EUR/PT currency pair stabilized after minor volatility. Short-term government bond yields edged up by 3 basis points, reflecting modest market recalibration to the improved PPI data. Breakeven inflation rates for two-year maturities rose slightly, indicating tempered inflation expectations.
Portugal’s PPI is a key upstream inflation gauge, influencing consumer prices and monetary policy decisions. The 0.30% MoM increase in November contrasts with the negative prints in the prior two months and the sharp declines seen earlier in 2025, such as -1.50% in February and -1.40% in May. This volatility reflects ongoing adjustments in global commodity prices and supply chain normalization.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s recent policy meetings have emphasized data dependency. The November PPI uptick may reduce pressure for immediate rate cuts but is unlikely to trigger hikes given the subdued core inflation. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable and liquidity ample.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Portugal’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with the government targeting growth-supportive spending amid moderate deficits. The PPI rise could increase input costs for public projects, potentially pressuring budget allocations if sustained.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Energy market volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply disruptions, remains a key risk factor. The November PPI increase partly reflects higher energy costs, which could transmit to broader inflation if prolonged.
This chart highlights a turning point in Portugal’s producer prices, trending upward after several months of decline. The data suggest that upstream inflation pressures may be stabilizing, which could influence consumer price inflation and monetary policy decisions in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/PT currency stabilized post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 3 basis points, reflecting cautious optimism.
Looking ahead, Portugal’s PPI trajectory will depend on several factors, including energy prices, supply chain developments, and global demand. We outline three scenarios:
- Bullish (30% probability): Continued supply normalization and stable energy prices push PPI up 0.50–0.70% MoM, supporting moderate inflation and economic growth.
- Base (50% probability): PPI fluctuates around 0.20–0.40% MoM, reflecting balanced risks and steady upstream price pressures.
- Bearish (20% probability): Renewed energy shocks or demand shocks cause PPI to fall below zero, exacerbating deflation risks and pressuring monetary easing.
Structural & long-run trends
Portugal’s producer prices have shown volatility due to external shocks and structural shifts in energy sourcing and manufacturing. The gradual normalization of supply chains and energy diversification efforts may reduce PPI volatility over the medium term.
Financial markets & sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautious but stable. The PPI rebound has not triggered significant risk-on moves but has improved inflation expectations slightly. Investors remain watchful of ECB signals and geopolitical developments.
The November 2025 PPI MoM increase to 0.30% marks a tentative shift in Portugal’s inflation dynamics. While the print exceeds expectations and reverses recent declines, the broader context remains one of subdued inflationary pressure. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation risks amid external uncertainties. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to incoming data and geopolitical developments.
Portugal’s PPI performance will be a key indicator to watch for signs of inflation stabilization or renewed disinflation. The interplay of energy prices, supply chain conditions, and fiscal policy will shape the near-term outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index MoM
The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator for inflation and economic activity, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets closely track PPI changes to gauge inflationary pressures and central bank policy shifts. The following symbols historically correlate with Portugal’s PPI movements:
- EDP.LS – Portugal’s leading energy company, sensitive to energy price-driven PPI changes.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reacts to ECB policy shifts influenced by inflation data.
- EURPT – The euro to Portuguese escudo proxy, reflecting domestic economic sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to inflation fears and monetary tightening.
- BCP.LS – Banco Comercial Português, sensitive to interest rate and inflation expectations.
Indicator vs. EDP.LS Since 2020
Since 2020, Portugal’s PPI and EDP.LS stock price have shown a positive correlation, particularly during energy price shocks. For example, spikes in PPI due to rising energy costs in early 2022 coincided with EDP.LS gains, reflecting higher revenues. Conversely, PPI declines during supply chain disruptions correlated with weaker EDP.LS performance. This relationship underscores the sensitivity of energy producers to upstream price changes.
| Year | Average PPI MoM (%) | EDP.LS Price Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.40 | -12.50 |
| 2021 | 0.20 | 18.30 |
| 2022 | 1.10 | 25.70 |
| 2023 | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| 2024 | -0.20 | -4.10 |
| 2025 (YTD) | -0.30 | 1.20 |
FAQs
- What does the Portugal Producer Price Index MoM indicate?
- The PPI MoM measures monthly changes in prices received by producers. It signals upstream inflation trends that often precede consumer price changes.
- How does the latest PPI reading affect Portugal’s economy?
- The 0.30% increase suggests easing deflationary pressures, potentially supporting moderate inflation and influencing ECB monetary policy decisions.
- Why is the PPI important for investors?
- PPI data help investors anticipate inflation trends, central bank moves, and sector-specific impacts, especially in energy and manufacturing.
Final takeaway: Portugal’s November PPI rebound signals a tentative end to disinflation, but external risks and subdued core inflation warrant cautious monitoring.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
Updated 11/19/25
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, Producer Price Index MoM for Portugal, November 2025 release.
- European Central Bank, Monetary Policy Reports, November 2025.
- Portugal National Statistics Institute, Inflation and Producer Price Data, 2025.
- Energy Market Reports, Q4 2025.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 PPI for Portugal rose by 0.30% MoM, reversing the -0.30% decline in October and the -0.60% drop in September. This marks a significant shift from the 12-month average of -0.30%, signaling a tentative end to the recent disinflationary trend.
Energy and intermediate goods prices were the main contributors, offsetting weakness in durable goods. The rebound aligns with easing global supply chain pressures and a partial recovery in commodity prices.