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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.8% from August's 0.7% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.6%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 0.8%, vs 1.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.64 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.6
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Portugal) was reported at 1.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.61%, ranging from -1.1% to 2.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.03%, down from the prior three at 1.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.79%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.64%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - PT
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's Producer Price Index MoM surged to 1.500000% in September, well above the 0.400000% estimate and up from August's 0.800000%. This acceleration signals a sharp rise in input costs, intensifying inflationary pressures in the Portuguese economy. Markets will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank responses amid this unexpected jump. Updated 10/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.74) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |