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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Producer Price Index YoY fell to 5.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Producer Price Index YoY fell to 5.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 5.1% reading. The print exceeded the 3.8% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1.73%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 4.45%, vs -1.87% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
3.8
Consensus
5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.13
Actual: 5
Error: -0.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Portugal) was reported at 5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.8% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.15%, ranging from -4.3% to 5.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.63%, up from the prior three at -2.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.18%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - PT
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 5.000000%, missing the 3.800000% estimate for July. This marks a slight decline from June's 5.100000%, indicating a modest easing in producer price inflation. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and central bank signals amid persistent price pressures. Updated 7/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.59) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |