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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Unemployment Rate held to 5.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Unemployment Rate held to 5.6% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.57%, vs 5.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.6
Actual
5.7
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.73
Actual: 5.6
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Portugal) was reported at 5.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.68%, ranging from 5.3% to 5.9% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67%, up from the prior three at 5.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.29%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - PT
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About Unemployment Rate — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5.6 %, consensus 5.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |