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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Unemployment Rate held to 5.6% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal Unemployment Rate held to 5.6% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.9%, vs 5.75% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 48 months.
Latest Release
5.6
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.4
Actual: 5.6
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Portugal) was reported at 5.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.5% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.79%, ranging from 5.6% to 6.1% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.7%, up from the prior three at 5.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.21%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - PT
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About Unemployment Rate — Portugal
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.6 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 6.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |