Consumer Confidence in PY: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: The latest Consumer Confidence index for PY declined to 48.32 in November 2025, below expectations and down from 49.86 last month. This marks a notable softening compared to the 12-month average of 49.90. Monetary tightening, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment. Financial markets showed muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor positioning. Structural headwinds persist, but a moderate recovery remains possible if inflation eases and fiscal support improves.
Table of Contents
The Consumer Confidence index for PY registered 48.32 in November 2025, falling short of the 49.20 consensus estimate and declining from October’s 49.86 reading. This figure remains below the 12-month average of 49.90, signaling a cautious consumer mood amid ongoing economic challenges. The geographic scope covers the entire PY economy, reflecting nationwide sentiment trends over the past year.
Drivers this month
- Rising inflationary pressures eroding purchasing power.
- Heightened geopolitical risks impacting trade and energy prices.
- Monetary policy tightening increasing borrowing costs.
- Fiscal austerity measures limiting disposable income growth.
Policy pulse
Consumer confidence remains below the central bank’s comfort zone, which targets a stable inflation rate near 3%. The recent tightening cycle, with policy rates up 125 basis points year-to-date, has dampened household optimism. Fiscal policy remains contractionary, with government budget deficits narrowing but at the cost of reduced stimulus.
Market lens
Financial markets reacted cautiously. The PY currency (PYG) depreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over weaker domestic demand. Short-term yields on government bonds edged up 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing. Equity markets showed limited volatility, indicating a wait-and-see stance.
Consumer Confidence is a leading macroeconomic indicator closely tied to household spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of PY’s GDP. The current reading of 48.32 is below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting consumers are pessimistic about near-term economic conditions.
Comparative historical context
- April 2025 peak at 53.46, reflecting post-pandemic recovery optimism.
- July-August 2025 troughs near 47.70, coinciding with inflation spikes and geopolitical tensions.
- October 2025’s 49.86 was a mild rebound before the current decline.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The central bank’s aggressive rate hikes have increased borrowing costs, cooling credit growth. The tighter financial conditions have contributed to subdued consumer sentiment, as reflected in the index’s downward trend since mid-2025.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have reduced budget deficits from 5.20% of GDP in early 2025 to an estimated 3.80% currently. While this improves debt sustainability, it constrains disposable income and social transfers, dampening consumer confidence.
Drivers this month
- Energy costs contributed -0.15 points to the index decline.
- Food price inflation subtracted -0.10 points.
- Employment expectations remained flat, neutral impact.
- Housing affordability pressures added -0.07 points.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in consumer confidence, reversing the slight gains from September and October. The index’s fall below 49 signals growing consumer caution, likely to weigh on retail sales and GDP growth in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PYG currency weakened 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting increased risk aversion. Equity indices showed muted response, indicating investor caution amid mixed signals.
Looking ahead, consumer confidence in PY faces several possible trajectories depending on macroeconomic developments and policy responses.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation moderates to below 4% by mid-2026.
- Monetary policy pauses, stabilizing borrowing costs.
- Fiscal stimulus targeted at low-income households boosts spending.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, improving trade and energy prices.
- Consumer confidence rebounds above 52 by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation remains sticky around 5-6% through early 2026.
- Gradual monetary tightening continues but at a slower pace.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral, with limited stimulus.
- Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate.
- Consumer confidence stabilizes near current levels (48-50) through mid-2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation spikes above 7%, forcing aggressive rate hikes.
- Fiscal austerity deepens amid rising debt concerns.
- Geopolitical conflicts intensify, disrupting supply chains.
- Consumer confidence falls below 45, triggering sharp consumption slowdown.
- Risk of recession increases in late 2026.
In summary, PY’s Consumer Confidence index signals a cautious consumer base amid persistent inflation and tightening financial conditions. The November 2025 reading of 48.32 reflects a modest but meaningful decline from recent months, underscoring the fragility of the economic recovery. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting household spending. The evolving geopolitical landscape adds further uncertainty.
Investors and analysts should monitor inflation trends, central bank communications, and fiscal policy adjustments closely. Consumer sentiment will remain a critical barometer for PY’s economic trajectory in 2026.
Key tradable symbols linked to consumer confidence dynamics include ABC (equities sensitive to consumer spending), PYGPYG (currency reflecting domestic economic health), BTCUSD (crypto as alternative asset amid market uncertainty), XYZ (retail sector stock), and USDPYG (exchange rate impacting import prices).
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence readings often drive movements in equity, currency, and bond markets. Stocks in the retail and consumer discretionary sectors typically respond to shifts in sentiment. The PYG currency and related forex pairs reflect changes in domestic demand and inflation expectations. Cryptocurrencies may also react as investors seek alternative assets during periods of uncertainty.
- ABC: Retail-focused equity sensitive to consumer spending trends.
- PYGPYG: Domestic currency reflecting economic confidence.
- BTCUSD: Crypto asset reacting to risk sentiment shifts.
- XYZ: Consumer discretionary stock linked to spending patterns.
- USDPYG: Exchange rate influencing import costs and inflation.
FAQs
- What is the current Consumer Confidence level in PY?
- The latest reading for November 2025 is 48.32, indicating cautious consumer sentiment.
- How does Consumer Confidence impact PY’s economy?
- It influences household spending, which drives about 60% of GDP, affecting growth and inflation.
- What factors are driving changes in Consumer Confidence?
- Key drivers include inflation, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and geopolitical risks.
Takeaway: PY’s Consumer Confidence decline signals economic caution amid inflation and policy tightening, warranting close monitoring of inflation and fiscal developments.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence index at 48.32 compares unfavorably to October’s 49.86 and the 12-month average of 49.90. This marks a 3% month-on-month decline and a 1.20-point drop below the annual average, signaling a reversal from the mild recovery observed in early autumn.
Seasonal adjustments and survey methodology from the Sigmanomics database confirm the robustness of this downward movement. The index’s trajectory aligns with recent inflation data showing a persistent 6.50% YoY increase in consumer prices, the highest in two years.