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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ParaguayParaguay Consumer Confidence fell to 39.09% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Paraguay Consumer Confidence fell to 39.09% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.58% from August's 39.67% reading. The reading matched the 40.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 45.89%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 40.58%, vs 39.87% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
39.09
Actual
40.5
Consensus
39.67
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 40.02
Actual: 39.09
Error: +0.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Paraguay) was reported at 39.09% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 40.5% by 1.41%. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.67%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45.39%, ranging from 38.21% to 55.34% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 40.58%, up from the prior three at 39.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.9%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 47.68%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.27%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PY
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About Consumer Confidence — Paraguay
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 39.09 %, consensus 40.5 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 39.09 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 39.67 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PY Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | PY | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.55 | Low | |