Paraguay Inflation Rate YoY: February 2026 Data Shows Further Deceleration
Paraguay's year-over-year inflation rate for February 2026 registered a notable decline, reinforcing a trend of easing price pressures. The latest data, released March 4, 2026, provides a fresh lens on the country's macroeconomic landscape.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.09pp
- Transport: -0.12pp
- Housing/utilities: +0.04pp
- Health: +0.03pp
Policy pulse
February's 2.3% reading sits comfortably below the Banco Central del Paraguay's 4% target, extending a streak of sub-target prints since January. The central bank has maintained a cautious stance, citing persistent external uncertainties.
Market lens
Bond yields dipped modestly after the release. The market interpreted the continued disinflation as a signal that policy rates will remain steady, with local equities showing muted reaction and the guaraní holding firm against major currencies.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 2.3%
- January 2026: 2.7%
- December 2025: 3.1%
- November 2025: 4.1%
- August 2025: 4.3%
- June 2025: 3.6%
Comparative trend
Inflation has fallen for four consecutive months, from 4.1% in November to 2.3% in February. The 12-month average stands at 3.8%, underscoring the sharpness of the recent deceleration.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Banco Central del Paraguay and Sigmanomics, based on the national consumer price index basket. Year-over-year rates compare each month's index to the same month a year prior, ensuring seasonality is accounted for.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Inflation remains below 2.5% through mid-2026, aided by stable food and energy prices.
- Base case (55–65%): Inflation stabilizes between 2.5% and 3.5% over the next quarter as base effects fade.
- Bearish (10–20%): Price pressures re-emerge, pushing inflation back above 4% if external shocks materialize.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include adverse weather impacting agriculture and renewed global commodity volatility. Downside risks stem from subdued domestic demand and persistent currency strength. The central bank's communication will be closely watched for any shift in tone.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
- February's 2.3% inflation rate is the lowest in over four years.
- Disinflation has been broad-based, with food and transport leading the slowdown.
- Market reaction has been muted, reflecting confidence in the central bank's policy stance.
Looking ahead
With inflation now well below target, policymakers have room to maintain a steady approach. The next few months will test whether this disinflationary trend can be sustained amid shifting global conditions.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Paraguay's inflation trajectory influences a range of asset classes, from local equities to global currency pairs. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in the country's inflation data, reflecting both direct and indirect macroeconomic linkages.
- AAPL — Global tech stocks often respond to emerging market inflation trends via risk sentiment channels.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair reflects shifts in EM inflation through capital flows and carry trade dynamics.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin has at times tracked inflation surprises in Latin America as a perceived hedge.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | AAPL Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.2 | Low |
| 2022 | 6.8 | Moderate |
| 2024 | 3.5 | Low |
| 2025 | 4.6 | Moderate |
| 2026 | 2.3 | Low |
Periods of higher inflation in Paraguay have coincided with increased volatility in AAPL, though the overall correlation remains modest.
FAQ
- What is Paraguay's current year-over-year inflation rate?
- As of February 2026, Paraguay's YoY inflation rate stands at 2.3%, according to official data from the Banco Central del Paraguay and Sigmanomics.
- How does the latest inflation reading compare to recent months?
- February's 2.3% is down from January's 2.7% and marks the fourth straight monthly decline, reflecting a broad-based disinflation trend.
- Why is the inflation rate important for Paraguay's economy?
- The inflation rate is a key indicator of price stability, influencing monetary policy, consumer purchasing power, and investment decisions across Paraguay.
Paraguay's inflation rate has entered a new, lower range, offering policymakers breathing room as global risks persist.
Updated 3/4/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Paraguay Inflation Rate YoY, accessed March 4, 2026.
- Banco Central del Paraguay, official inflation statistics, February 2026 release.
February's 2.3% inflation rate marks a further slowdown from January's 2.7%, and is the lowest since June 2021. The 12-month average, at 3.8%, highlights the magnitude of this disinflationary phase. Since peaking at 4.6% in September 2025, inflation has dropped by more than two percentage points.
Monthly momentum has shifted decisively, with February's print extending the downtrend that began in late 2025. The last time Paraguay posted a lower annual inflation rate was over four years ago.