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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ParaguayParaguay Producer Price Index YoY climbed to -0.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Paraguay Producer Price Index YoY climbed to -0.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.9% from August's -1.7% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 2.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.52%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged -1.43%, vs -1.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 32nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
1.5
Consensus
-1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: -0.8
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Paraguay) was reported at -0.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 2.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.34%, ranging from -1.8% to 3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.33%, up from the prior three at -1.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.67%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.51%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - PY
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Paraguay
DEFINITION
Paraguay's Producer Price Index YoY for October reported an actual value of -0.800000, missing the consensus estimate of 1.500000. This marks an improvement from September's -1.700000, indicating a slower pace of contraction. Market participants will closely watch upcoming economic indicators to assess potential impacts on monetary policy. Updated 10/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PY Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | PY | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.55 | Low | |