Romania’s balance of trade for November 2025 recorded a deficit of -2.48 billion RON, improving from October’s -2.60 billion RON and surpassing the market estimate of -2.70 billion RON, according to the Sigmanomics database[1]. This marks the smallest monthly deficit since April 2025, when the trade gap was -2.87 billion RON. The persistent trade deficit reflects Romania’s structural import dependence, particularly on energy and capital goods, but the recent narrowing suggests some resilience in export sectors amid global uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Export growth in machinery and automotive sectors increased by 3.20% MoM.
• Energy imports declined 1.80% MoM due to lower global oil prices.
• Domestic demand for consumer goods remained steady, limiting import growth.

Policy pulse

The current deficit level remains above the 12-month average of -2.75 billion RON, indicating ongoing external imbalances. The National Bank of Romania’s recent monetary tightening, with a 25 bps hike in the policy rate, aims to curb inflation and stabilize the currency, indirectly influencing trade flows by affecting import costs and export competitiveness.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RON appreciated 0.30% against the EUR in the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the narrower deficit. Short-term yields on Romanian government bonds edged lower by 5 bps, signaling reduced risk premia.

Romania’s trade deficit remains a critical macroeconomic indicator, closely tied to GDP growth, inflation, and external financing conditions. The November print of -2.48 billion RON compares favorably to the previous six months, which averaged -2.80 billion RON, highlighting a tentative improvement in external balances.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Romania’s tightening cycle, now totaling 125 bps since mid-2025, has increased borrowing costs and strengthened the RON. This has helped temper import inflation but risks dampening domestic investment. The trade deficit’s improvement partly reflects these tighter financial conditions reducing import demand.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts, including reduced subsidies and improved tax collection, have moderated domestic consumption growth. This indirectly supports trade balance improvement by limiting import-driven demand. However, government spending on infrastructure and EU-funded projects continues to drive import needs for capital goods.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and volatile energy markets pose downside risks. While lower oil prices helped reduce energy import costs in November, any escalation in regional conflicts could disrupt supply chains and increase costs, reversing recent gains.

Exports have shown steady growth, driven by machinery (3.20% MoM) and automotive (2.70% MoM) sectors, while imports contracted slightly due to lower energy prices and moderated consumer demand. The trade balance trend suggests a gradual adjustment to external shocks and tighter domestic policies.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/RON fell 0.30% post-release, reflecting improved sentiment. Romanian 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 bps, signaling reduced risk premiums. The RON’s appreciation supports import cost containment and inflation control.

Looking ahead, Romania’s trade balance trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, energy prices, and domestic policy responses. The following scenarios outline potential paths:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global economic recovery boosts export demand by 5% YoY.
• Energy prices remain stable or decline, reducing import costs.
• RON strengthens moderately, improving trade terms.
• Trade deficit narrows below -2.00 billion RON by Q1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Exports grow modestly at 2-3% YoY, offset by steady imports.
• Energy prices fluctuate but remain manageable.
• Monetary policy maintains current stance, stabilizing currency.
• Trade deficit remains near current levels (-2.40 to -2.60 billion RON).

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global slowdown reduces export demand by 3-5% YoY.
• Energy prices spike due to geopolitical tensions.
• RON weakens, increasing import costs and inflationary pressures.
• Trade deficit widens above -3.00 billion RON, pressuring external balances.

Policy pulse

Monetary authorities face a delicate balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Fiscal policy will need to complement monetary tightening by promoting export competitiveness and managing import dependency.

Romania’s November 2025 balance of trade data signals a cautiously optimistic shift in external balances. The narrowing deficit reflects improved export performance and moderating import pressures amid tighter monetary policy and subdued domestic demand. However, structural challenges remain, including energy import reliance and vulnerability to external shocks.

Policymakers should focus on enhancing export diversification, investing in energy efficiency, and maintaining prudent fiscal discipline. Financial markets have responded positively to the data, but sustained improvement will require coordinated macroeconomic management and geopolitical stability.

Overall, the trade deficit’s recent improvement is a positive sign but not yet a turning point. Vigilance is warranted as global uncertainties and domestic policy shifts continue to shape Romania’s external sector outlook.