Romania’s November 2025 CPI Release: Cooling Inflation Amid Persistent Pressures
Romania’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly to 9.80% YoY in November 2025, down from 9.90% in October. This marks the first monthly decline after three consecutive months near 10%. Core inflation remains elevated, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in energy and food sectors. Monetary policy remains vigilant amid mixed signals from fiscal tightening and external uncertainties. Financial markets showed muted reactions, signaling cautious optimism. Structural inflation drivers persist, suggesting a gradual disinflation path rather than a sharp drop.
Table of Contents
Romania’s November 2025 CPI print at 9.80% YoY, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, signals a modest cooling from October’s 9.90%. This slight dip follows a sharp inflation rise from mid-2025, when CPI surged from 5.50% in June to nearly 10% by September. Despite the easing, inflation remains well above the National Bank of Romania’s (NBR) 2.50% target, underscoring persistent price pressures.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points, down from 0.45 pp last month.
- Food inflation remained sticky, adding 0.40 pp, driven by supply chain disruptions and seasonal factors.
- Core inflation components, excluding volatile items, held steady at around 7.20%, reflecting wage pressures and service costs.
Policy pulse
The current CPI level remains nearly four times the NBR’s inflation target, maintaining pressure on monetary authorities to keep interest rates elevated. The central bank’s policy rate stands at 7.75%, unchanged since September, as the NBR balances growth concerns with inflation containment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RON currency weakened marginally by 0.10% against the EUR in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
The Sigmanomics database reveals that Romania’s inflation trajectory over the past year has been volatile. From a low of 4.90% in April-May 2025, CPI accelerated sharply to 9.90% in September and October before the recent slight moderation. This volatility aligns with swings in energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The NBR’s monetary stance remains restrictive. The policy rate at 7.75% is among the highest in the region, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations. Credit growth has slowed to 3.20% YoY, down from 5.10% six months ago, indicating tighter financial conditions. Inflation expectations for 2026 hover near 5%, suggesting markets anticipate gradual disinflation but not a rapid return to target.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening measures introduced in Q3 2025, including reduced subsidies and higher excise taxes, have contributed to dampening demand-pull inflation. The government budget deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in Q3, down from 4.50% a year earlier, supporting macro stability. However, public investment remains subdued, limiting growth potential.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Romania faces ongoing risks from volatile energy markets and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Natural gas prices, a key inflation driver, remain elevated due to supply uncertainties. Additionally, trade disruptions linked to regional conflicts continue to pressure food and industrial goods prices.
Drivers this month
- Energy inflation contribution: 0.35 pp (down from 0.45 pp in October)
- Food inflation contribution: 0.40 pp (steady)
- Core inflation stable at 7.20%
Policy pulse
The CPI print remains significantly above the NBR’s target range, reinforcing the need for a cautious monetary policy approach. The slight decline may reduce immediate pressure for rate hikes but does not signal a clear disinflation trend yet.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RON depreciated slightly against the EUR, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting investor caution amid persistent inflation risks.
This chart highlights a plateauing of inflation after a rapid rise in mid-2025. The moderation in energy prices is a positive sign, but persistent food and core inflation suggest that headline CPI will remain elevated in the near term.
Looking ahead, Romania’s inflation outlook is shaped by several competing forces. The base case scenario assumes gradual easing of supply-side pressures and continued fiscal discipline, leading to a CPI decline to around 6% by mid-2026 (probability ~55%).
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Energy prices fall sharply due to improved supply conditions.
- Food inflation normalizes with better harvests and logistics.
- Monetary policy remains stable, supporting growth without fueling inflation.
- CPI falls below 5% by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Energy prices moderate but remain volatile.
- Food inflation remains elevated but stable.
- Monetary policy stays restrictive, with possible minor rate adjustments.
- CPI gradually declines to 6% by mid-2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, pushing energy prices higher.
- Supply chain disruptions worsen food inflation.
- Monetary tightening intensifies, risking growth slowdown.
- CPI remains above 8% through 2026.
Romania’s November 2025 CPI print signals a tentative peak in inflation but highlights persistent structural pressures. The slight easing from 9.90% to 9.80% YoY is encouraging but insufficient to shift the monetary policy stance decisively. Fiscal consolidation and external factors will play critical roles in shaping inflation dynamics in 2026. Investors and policymakers should brace for continued volatility, balancing growth risks with inflation containment.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
The CPI release typically influences Romanian financial markets, especially currency, bond, and equity sectors. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends and monetary policy shifts:
- EURRON – The Romanian leu’s exchange rate against the euro is sensitive to inflation surprises and monetary policy expectations.
- BRD – A major Romanian bank, its stock price reflects credit conditions and inflation outlook.
- FP – Romania’s largest energy company, closely tied to energy price inflation.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge and reflects risk sentiment shifts.
- USDRON – The USD/RON pair reacts to global risk and inflation dynamics.
Inflation vs. EURRON Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Romanian CPI spikes have correlated with EURRON depreciation episodes. For example, the 2025 mid-year inflation surge coincided with a 4% RON weakening against the euro. This relationship underscores inflation’s impact on currency valuation and external competitiveness.
FAQs
- What is the current CPI rate for Romania?
- The latest CPI for Romania is 9.80% year-over-year as of November 2025.
- How does inflation affect Romania’s monetary policy?
- High inflation pressures the National Bank of Romania to maintain restrictive interest rates to anchor expectations.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in Romania?
- Energy and food prices are the primary contributors, alongside wage growth and supply chain disruptions.
Key takeaway: Romania’s inflation shows signs of plateauing but remains elevated, requiring continued vigilance from policymakers and markets alike.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Comparing the November 2025 CPI of 9.80% with October’s 9.90% and the 12-month average of 7.10%, the data shows a tentative peak in inflation pressures. The month-on-month (MoM) change was a modest -0.10 percentage points, the first decline since July 2025.
Energy inflation, which surged from 3.10% YoY in June to 12.50% in September, has started to moderate, easing the headline CPI. Food inflation remains elevated at 11.30% YoY, consistent with seasonal harvest disruptions and import cost pass-through.