The Current Account deficit for Romania in November 2025 expanded sharply to -3,127 million RON, the largest monthly shortfall recorded this year. This figure is 12.80% worse than the previous month and 6.50% below the 12-month average deficit of approximately -2,980 million RON. The persistent external imbalance reflects ongoing pressures from trade deficits, energy import costs, and subdued export growth amid global uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Energy import costs surged due to higher global oil and gas prices, contributing roughly 0.45 percentage points to the deficit increase.
• Export growth slowed to 1.20% YoY, down from 3.50% in October, weakening the current account inflows.
• Services balance deteriorated slightly, reflecting weaker tourism receipts amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.

Policy pulse

The current deficit level exceeds the central bank’s comfort zone, which targets a current account deficit below 3% of GDP. Romania’s deficit now approximates 3.50% of GDP, raising concerns about external financing needs and currency stability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Romanian leu (RON) depreciated 0.40% against the euro within the first hour of the release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 15 basis points, signaling increased risk premia.

Romania’s Current Account deficit is a key macroeconomic indicator reflecting the country’s external trade and income flows. The November 2025 reading of -3,127 million RON contrasts with earlier months this year, where the deficit fluctuated between -1,646 million RON in March and -3,230 million RON in June. The current figure is the highest since June 2025, indicating renewed external pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, with the policy rate steady at 7.50%. However, tighter global financial conditions and rising inflationary pressures have constrained capital inflows, exacerbating the current account deficit. The widening deficit may prompt the NBR to consider further rate hikes or intervene in FX markets to stabilize the leu.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a budget deficit of 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025. Increased public spending on infrastructure and social programs has supported domestic demand but also contributed to higher import bills, indirectly affecting the current account balance.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, particularly related to energy supply routes, have increased volatility in commodity prices. Romania’s reliance on energy imports makes it vulnerable to such shocks, which have been a major driver of the recent current account deterioration.

The chart below illustrates the monthly Current Account deficit trend over the past 10 months, showing a volatile pattern with a notable spike in November. The data suggests that Romania’s external position remains fragile, with external shocks and domestic demand fluctuations driving swings in the deficit.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the release, the RON/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.30%, while the 10-year government bond yield climbed 12 basis points, reflecting investor caution amid rising external imbalances.

Looking ahead, Romania’s current account trajectory will depend on several factors, including global commodity prices, export performance, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios for the next six months:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global energy prices stabilize or decline, reducing import costs.
• Export growth accelerates to above 4% YoY, supported by EU demand recovery.
• Fiscal consolidation limits import-driven demand, narrowing the deficit to below 2,500 million RON by Q2 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Energy prices remain elevated but stable.
• Exports grow modestly at 2-3% YoY.
• Current Account deficit hovers around -3,000 million RON, maintaining pressure on the leu and external financing.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Energy prices spike due to geopolitical disruptions.
• Export growth stalls or contracts amid global slowdown.
• Deficit widens beyond -3,500 million RON, triggering currency depreciation and higher borrowing costs.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Romania may need to tighten monetary policy further or intervene in FX markets if the deficit continues to widen, while fiscal authorities could consider targeted measures to reduce import dependence.

Romania’s November 2025 Current Account deficit signals mounting external vulnerabilities amid persistent energy import costs and subdued export growth. While the country benefits from EU integration and structural reforms, near-term risks from geopolitical tensions and global commodity price volatility remain elevated. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and safeguarding external stability.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, Romania’s current account deficit reflects structural factors such as energy import dependence and limited export diversification. Efforts to boost renewable energy, enhance competitiveness, and deepen trade ties within the EU will be critical to narrowing the deficit sustainably.

In summary, the November Current Account print underscores the need for vigilant macroeconomic management and proactive policy coordination to mitigate downside risks and capitalize on growth opportunities.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

Romania’s Current Account deficit influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external balances and risk sentiment. Key tradable symbols historically correlated with Romania’s external position include the EURRON currency pair, reflecting leu exchange rate movements; the FP stock, a major energy sector player impacted by import costs; the BRD bank stock, sensitive to credit conditions; the BTCUSD crypto pair, often a risk sentiment proxy; and the USDRON pair, tracking dollar-leu dynamics.

Extras: Current Account vs. EURRON Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Romania’s Current Account deficit and the EURRON exchange rate have exhibited a strong positive correlation. Periods of widening deficits often coincide with RON depreciation against the euro. For example, the 2025 deficit spike in November aligns with a 0.40% RON weakening. This relationship underscores the sensitivity of Romania’s currency to external imbalances and highlights the importance of current account management for FX stability.

FAQs

What does the Current Account deficit indicate for Romania?

The Current Account deficit measures the gap between Romania’s external receipts and payments. A widening deficit suggests increased reliance on foreign capital and potential currency pressure.

How does the Current Account affect Romania’s monetary policy?

Large deficits may prompt the National Bank of Romania to tighten monetary policy to defend the currency and maintain external balance.

What are the main drivers of Romania’s Current Account deficit?

Key drivers include energy import costs, export performance, and geopolitical risks affecting trade and investment flows.

Takeaway: Romania’s November 2025 Current Account deficit surge highlights external vulnerabilities amid energy price shocks and subdued exports, demanding vigilant policy responses to maintain macroeconomic stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.