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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 0.8% from March's -1.2% reading. The reading matched the -0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.13%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged -0.8%, vs -0.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
-1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.13
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Romania) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.05%, ranging from -1.7% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.67%, up from the prior three at -0.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - RO
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Romania
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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