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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 1.4% from December's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the -1.7% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.43%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged -0.75%, vs 0.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.2
Actual
-1.7
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -2.9
Actual: -1.2
Error: -1.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Romania) was reported at -1.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.7% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -1.7% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.9%, down from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.03%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged -0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - RO
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Romania
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -1.2 %, consensus -1.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -1.7 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.