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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Romania Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.8% from March's -1.2% reading. The print exceeded the -1.5% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged -1.2%, vs -0.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-1.5
Consensus
-1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -1.38
Actual: -0.4
Error: -0.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Romania) was reported at -0.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.5% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.1%, ranging from -1.7% to 1.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.93%, down from the prior three at -0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.18%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.24%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RO
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Romania
DEFINITION
Romania's Gross Domestic Product YoY for July came in at -0.400000%, beating the estimate of -1.500000% and improving from June's -1.200000%. The data shows a significant contraction slowdown compared to the prior two months, indicating a less severe economic decline. Market participants will watch upcoming releases closely as the central bank maintains its current stance amid this gradual recovery. Updated 8/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RO Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RO | Industrial Production MoM | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.60 | Low |
| 06:00 | RO | Industrial Production YoY | -6.1 | -5.1 | -4.6 | -5.35 | Low |
| 09:20 | RO | Current Account | -3135 | -2666 | -3210 | -3172.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | RO | Current Account | -3135 | -2666 | -3210 | -3172.50 | Low |