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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Romania Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026, released July 2026, down 1.4% from December's 0.2% reading. The reading matched the -1.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.29%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged -1.45%, vs 0.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.2
Actual
-1.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.95
Actual: -1.2
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Romania) was reported at -1.2% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -1.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from -1.7% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.37%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.12%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.24%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RO
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Romania
DEFINITION
Romania's Gross Domestic Product YoY for June registered at -1.200000%, matching estimates but down from May's -1.700000%. This marks a continued contraction following a brief positive trend earlier in the year, with GDP falling from 0.200000% in March to negative territory by May. Market focus now shifts to upcoming policy decisions amid persistent economic decline. Updated 7/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -1.2 %, consensus -1.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RO Events
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RO | Producer Price Index YoY | 12.05 | 11.4 | 12.53 | Low | |