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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Romania Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -1.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 1.4% from December's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the -1.7% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.42%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged -0.43%, vs 0.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.2
Actual
-1.7
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1.7
Actual: -1.2
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Romania) was reported at -1.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.7% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -1.7% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.9%, down from the prior three at 1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RO
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Romania
DEFINITION
Romania's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May registered -1.200000%, beating the -1.700000% estimate and improving from April's 0.200000%. The data signals a contraction easing compared to the prior month, reflecting a less severe economic downturn. Market focus will remain on upcoming releases and central bank responses amid this gradual recovery. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -1.2 %, consensus -1.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -1.7 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.