Romania’s industrial production MoM rose by 1.10% in November 2025, rebounding from a sharp 1.90% contraction in October. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a volatile industrial sector struggling to regain momentum amid mixed domestic and external conditions.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing output increased by 1.30%, led by automotive and machinery sectors.
• Energy production rose 0.80%, supported by higher demand and stable gas supplies.
• Mining and quarrying remained flat, reflecting ongoing raw material constraints.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Romania’s recent rate hikes to combat inflation have tightened financial conditions, limiting credit growth. The 1.10% rise in industrial output suggests some resilience but also signals caution as monetary policy remains restrictive.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RON appreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, reflecting relief at the rebound but tempered optimism due to the miss versus estimates.

Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator that captures the health of Romania’s manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. The 1.10% MoM increase in November contrasts with the average monthly contraction of 0.70% over the past 12 months, underscoring the sector’s volatility.

Historical comparisons

• November 2025’s 1.10% gain follows October’s -1.90%, the steepest monthly drop since April 2025 (-2.10%).
• The 12-month average MoM change stands at -0.70%, reflecting a broader slowdown since early 2025.
• February 2025 saw a -1.20% decline, marking the start of a turbulent period for industrial output.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Romania has raised its policy rate by 125 basis points since mid-2025 to tame inflation, which remains above the 2% target. Tighter credit conditions have constrained investment, particularly in capital-intensive industries.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts, including reduced public spending and tax reforms, have limited domestic demand support. However, targeted subsidies for energy-intensive industries have helped stabilize production costs.

Drivers this month

• Automotive manufacturing output rose 2.50%, benefiting from resumed export orders.
• Machinery and equipment production increased 1.80%, supported by domestic investment.
• Energy sector output grew 0.80%, aided by stable gas imports and mild weather.

Policy pulse

The rebound aligns with recent government measures to ease energy costs and support exporters. However, monetary tightening continues to weigh on industrial credit availability, limiting upside potential.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RON strengthened modestly, while short-term bond yields declined, reflecting cautious market optimism tempered by ongoing inflation concerns.

Looking ahead, Romania’s industrial production trajectory depends on several key factors: global demand, domestic policy, and geopolitical stability. The recent rebound is encouraging but not yet robust enough to confirm a sustained uptrend.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand recovers strongly, boosting exports by 5% YoY.
• Monetary policy stabilizes as inflation eases below 3%.
• Fiscal stimulus targets industrial modernization, lifting output by 3% MoM.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate export growth of 1-2% YoY amid mixed global signals.
• Monetary tightening persists, keeping credit growth subdued.
• Industrial output grows modestly by 0.50-1.50% MoM over the next quarter.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, causing output to contract 1-2% MoM.
• Inflation spikes force further rate hikes, tightening financial conditions.
• Fiscal austerity deepens, reducing domestic demand and investment.

Structural & long-run trends

Romania’s industrial sector faces structural challenges including aging infrastructure, skills shortages, and energy dependency. Long-term growth hinges on investment in technology and diversification away from vulnerable export markets.

Romania’s November 2025 industrial production MoM rebound to 1.10% signals tentative recovery after a volatile year. While the gain is positive, it remains below expectations and the longer-term trend is still negative. Monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation continue to restrain growth, while external risks loom large. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain industrial momentum.

Investors and analysts should monitor upcoming data for confirmation of this rebound and watch for shifts in global demand and domestic policy. The sector’s path will likely remain uneven, with upside potential tied to easing financial conditions and downside risks linked to geopolitical shocks.

For now, Romania’s industrial production reflects a fragile recovery amid a complex macroeconomic landscape.

Since 2020, Romania’s industrial production and FP stock price have shown a positive correlation, particularly during periods of energy demand shifts. Industrial output contractions often coincide with FP price dips, reflecting the company’s exposure to domestic industrial energy consumption. The November 2025 rebound aligns with a modest recovery in FP shares, underscoring the interconnectedness of industrial activity and energy sector performance.