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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Romania Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.9% from June's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.53%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -1.75%, vs 0.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.4
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.58 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1.28
Actual: -1.4
Error: +0.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Romania) was reported at -1.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 1.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.61%, ranging from -3.3% to 1.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.63%, down from the prior three at -0.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.24%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -1.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - RO
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About Industrial Production MoM — Romania
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.4 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.7 %. Before that (May 2026): -2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RO Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RO | Industrial Production MoM | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.60 | Low |
| 06:00 | RO | Industrial Production YoY | -6.1 | -5.1 | -4.6 | -5.35 | Low |
| 09:20 | RO | Current Account | -3135 | -2666 | -3210 | -3172.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | RO | Current Account | -3135 | -2666 | -3210 | -3172.50 | Low |