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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RomaniaRomania Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Romania Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.8% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 4.4% from April's 1.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.9% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.9%, vs -0.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.8
Actual
0.9
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: -2.8
Error: +3.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Romania) was reported at -2.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 3.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.53%, ranging from -3.3% to 1.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.33%, up from the prior three at -0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.59%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.93%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -3.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - RO
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About Industrial Production MoM — Romania
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -2.8 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - RO Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RO | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Low |