Romania’s November Inflation Rate MoM: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
Key Takeaways: Romania’s November inflation rate rose 0.50% MoM, surpassing estimates and last month’s 0.36%. This marks a moderate acceleration after a recent easing trend. Core drivers include energy prices and food costs. Monetary policy remains cautious amid persistent inflationary pressures. External risks from geopolitical tensions and currency volatility add complexity. Financial markets reacted with mild RON depreciation and bond yield upticks. Structural inflation trends suggest a gradual normalization but with upside risks from fiscal stimulus and global shocks.
Table of Contents
Romania’s inflation rate for November 2025 rose by 0.50% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably exceeds the market consensus estimate of 0.20% and last month’s 0.36%, signaling a modest but meaningful uptick in price pressures.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points (pp) to the inflation increase, reflecting seasonal demand and supply constraints.
- Food inflation added 0.15 pp, driven by rising vegetable and dairy costs.
- Services inflation edged up 0.10 pp, linked to higher transportation and housing-related expenses.
- Core goods inflation remained stable, contributing 0.07 pp.
Policy pulse
The 0.50% MoM inflation rate remains above the National Bank of Romania’s (NBR) target midpoint of 2%, maintaining pressure on monetary authorities to stay vigilant. The reading suggests inflation is not yet fully contained, despite recent rate hikes and liquidity tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Romanian leu (RON) depreciated 0.30% against the euro in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, reflecting increased inflation risk premiums.
Examining Romania’s inflation trajectory over the past year reveals significant volatility. The November 2025 MoM inflation of 0.50% contrasts with the 12-month average of approximately 0.85%, reflecting a recent moderation from peaks earlier in the year.
Historical comparisons
- February 2025 saw a high of 0.92% MoM inflation, the year’s peak before a gradual decline.
- August and September 2025 experienced sharp spikes of 2.68% and 2.10% respectively, driven by energy shocks and supply chain disruptions.
- October’s 0.36% MoM reading marked a slowdown, now reversed by November’s uptick.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The NBR has maintained a cautious stance, with the key policy rate steady at 7.50% since September. Liquidity conditions remain tight, and credit growth has slowed to 3.20% YoY. Inflation expectations for 2026 hover around 3.10%, slightly above the 2% target, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including increased public spending on infrastructure and social programs, have added to demand-side inflationary pressures. The government’s budget deficit widened to 4.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, limiting fiscal space for counter-inflationary measures.
What This Chart Tells Us
Inflation is trending upward after a brief pause, suggesting renewed price pressures. The reversal from October’s slowdown indicates that underlying inflation drivers remain active, warranting close monitoring by policymakers and investors.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RON weakened modestly against the EUR, while bond yields climbed, reflecting market concerns about sustained inflation. Breakeven inflation rates for 2-year bonds rose by 15 basis points, signaling increased inflation risk premiums.
Looking ahead, Romania’s inflation trajectory will depend on several key factors, including energy price volatility, fiscal policy adjustments, and external geopolitical risks.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Energy prices stabilize or decline due to improved supply conditions.
- Fiscal consolidation reduces demand-side pressures.
- Monetary policy tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
- Inflation falls below 2% by mid-2026, enabling rate cuts.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Energy prices remain volatile but contained.
- Fiscal policy remains expansionary but manageable.
- Inflation moderates gradually to 2.50%-3% by late 2026.
- NBR maintains current policy rates with minor adjustments.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Energy shocks intensify due to geopolitical tensions.
- Fiscal stimulus expands further amid political pressures.
- Inflation expectations de-anchor, pushing inflation above 4%.
- NBR forced into aggressive rate hikes, risking growth slowdown.
Romania’s November inflation rate MoM of 0.50% signals persistent inflationary pressures despite recent moderation. The interplay of energy costs, fiscal policy, and external shocks will shape the inflation path in 2026. Monetary authorities face a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting growth. Financial markets have priced in moderate inflation risk, but volatility remains elevated.
Structural trends such as wage growth, supply chain normalization, and EU integration efforts will influence Romania’s long-run inflation dynamics. Policymakers must remain agile to navigate these challenges and sustain macroeconomic stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Romania’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts. The following tradable symbols have shown historical correlations with inflation trends in Romania:
- EURRON – The euro-to-romanian leu pair reacts to inflation surprises via monetary policy expectations.
- FP – Romania’s largest oil and gas company, sensitive to energy-driven inflation.
- BRD – A major Romanian bank, impacted by interest rate changes linked to inflation.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, influencing investor sentiment.
- TGN – A key player in natural gas, tied to inflation via energy prices.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. EURRON Since 2020
Since 2020, Romania’s inflation rate MoM and the EURRON exchange rate have shown a positive correlation during inflation spikes. For instance, during August 2025’s 2.68% inflation surge, EURRON depreciated by 1.50%, reflecting market concerns about inflation-driven monetary tightening. This pattern underscores the sensitivity of the RON to inflation dynamics and the importance of monitoring currency movements alongside inflation data.
FAQs
- What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for Romania?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for Romania is 0.50% for November 2025, exceeding market expectations and last month’s 0.36%.
- How does the Inflation Rate MoM impact Romania’s monetary policy?
- Higher-than-expected inflation pressures the National Bank of Romania to maintain or tighten policy rates to anchor inflation expectations and control price growth.
- What are the main drivers behind Romania’s inflation changes?
- Energy prices, food costs, and services inflation are the primary drivers, influenced by global supply shocks and domestic fiscal policies.
Romania’s inflation rate MoM in November 2025 rose to 0.50%, up from 0.36% in October and below the 12-month average of 0.85%. This signals a reversal of the two-month easing trend seen since September’s 2.10% spike.
The chart shows a volatile inflation path, with sharp peaks in mid-2025 followed by a gradual decline, interrupted by the recent uptick. Energy and food prices remain the primary drivers, while core inflation remains contained.