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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia CPI fell to 2.4% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Serbia CPI fell to 2.4% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.3% from December's 2.7% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.7% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 2.2%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 0.15%, vs 2.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
CPI (Serbia) was reported at 2.5% in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.53%, ranging from 0.1% to 4.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.67%, up from the prior three at 1.2%. In March readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 91.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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CPI - RS
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About CPI — Serbia
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.