Serbia’s Current Account Deficit Hits 13-Month High in January
Serbia’s current account deficit ballooned to RSD -1,058 million in January 2026, up from RSD -645 million in December 2025. The latest figure is the deepest monthly shortfall since December 2024, underscoring renewed external pressures as import demand outpaces export growth.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Goods imports: +RSD 320M MoM
- Services surplus: -RSD 55M MoM
- Primary income deficit: +RSD 18M MoM
Policy pulse
The current account deficit at RSD -1,058M stands well above the National Bank of Serbia’s comfort zone, which typically targets a deficit below 4% of GDP on an annualized basis. The January reading signals a clear deviation from this threshold.
Market lens
The RSD weakened modestly against the euro following the release. Market participants cited the sharp deterioration as a sign of rising external funding needs, with sovereign bond spreads widening by 12 basis points on the day.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Export growth: +2.1% YoY
- Import growth: +5.6% YoY
- Remittance inflows: -RSD 14M MoM
Policy pulse
The National Bank of Serbia has maintained its policy rate at 5.75% since November 2025, aiming to anchor inflation and support the dinar. However, the widening current account gap may prompt closer scrutiny of external vulnerabilities.
Market lens
Local equities saw muted reaction. The focus remained on currency and fixed income markets, where the current account data reinforced concerns about Serbia’s external position and potential funding pressures.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Deficit narrows below RSD -600M by March 2026 (20–30%)
- Base: Deficit remains between RSD -800M and RSD -1,000M through Q1 (50–60%)
- Bearish: Deficit widens further above RSD -1,100M (10–20%)
Policy pulse
Authorities are expected to monitor capital flows and external borrowing closely. The central bank’s recent interventions in the FX market have aimed to smooth volatility, but persistent deficits may test reserves if the trend continues.
Market lens
FX forwards priced in higher risk premiums. Investors are watching for signs of fiscal adjustment or external financing measures to address the widening gap.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Import surge outpacing exports
- Weaker remittance inflows
- Stable policy rate
Policy pulse
While the central bank has signaled readiness to act if external pressures mount, the January data highlight the need for vigilance. Sustained deficits could weigh on the dinar and complicate the inflation outlook.
Market lens
Investors remain cautious. The focus is on upcoming trade and remittance data for signs of stabilization or further deterioration in Serbia’s external accounts.
Key Markets Reacting to Current Account
Serbia’s current account data has immediate implications for currency, equity, and crypto markets. The widening deficit typically pressures the dinar and raises risk premiums on sovereign debt. Market participants track these shifts to adjust exposures in related assets.
- AAPL: Global tech stocks often react to emerging market currency volatility, with risk-off flows impacting sector sentiment.
- EURUSD: The euro’s strength versus the dinar is a key barometer for Serbia’s external adjustment and capital flows.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s performance can reflect broader risk appetite shifts following emerging market balance of payments shocks.
| Year | Current Account (RSD M) | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -1,120 | Up |
| 2022 | -980 | Flat |
| 2024 | -1,045 | Up |
| 2026 (Jan) | -1,058 | Up |
Since 2020, periods of wider Serbian current account deficits have coincided with upward moves in EURUSD, reflecting external funding strains and currency adjustment pressures.
FAQ
- What is Serbia’s current account deficit for January 2026?
- Serbia posted a current account deficit of RSD -1,058 million in January 2026, the largest monthly gap since December 2024.
- How does the January 2026 deficit compare to previous months?
- The deficit widened from RSD -645 million in December 2025 and is nearly triple the November 2025 level of RSD -396 million.
- What are the main drivers of Serbia’s current account trend?
- Rising goods imports, a softer services surplus, and lower remittance inflows contributed to the sharp deterioration in January 2026.
Serbia’s external position faces renewed pressure as the current account deficit widens sharply in early 2026.
Updated 2/19/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Database, Serbia Current Account, accessed February 19, 2026.
- National Bank of Serbia, Balance of Payments Statistics, January 2026 release.
- Serbian Statistical Office, External Trade Data, 2025–2026.
January’s current account deficit of RSD -1,058M compares to December’s RSD -645M and a 12-month average of RSD -420M. The gap has widened for two consecutive months, reversing the improvement seen in late 2025. The January figure is nearly triple the deficit posted in November 2025 (RSD -396M), and more than five times the October 2025 level (RSD -186M).
Since July 2025, the deficit has fluctuated between RSD -308M and RSD -748M, before this latest spike. The current reading marks the steepest monthly deterioration since December 2024, highlighting the volatility of Serbia’s external balances.