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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Current Account fell to -411M in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Serbia Current Account fell to -411M in March 2026, released May 2026, down 54M from February's -357M reading. The print exceeded the -480M consensus by 69M. Current Account has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged -360.67M, vs -409M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-411
Actual
-480
Consensus
-357
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±121 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -438
Actual: -411
Error: -27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Serbia) was reported at -411.00 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -480.00 million by 69.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -357.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -430.83 million, ranging from -1,058.00 million to 381.00 million across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -362.67 million, up from the prior three at -409.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 327.09 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 294.22 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -561.00 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 121.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Current Account - RS
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About Current Account — Serbia
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -411 M, consensus -480 M. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -405 M. Before that (Jan 2026): 381 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.