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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Serbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, up 1.0% from December's 2.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.0% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Serbia) was reported at 3.6% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.47%, ranging from 2% to 3.6% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3%, up from the prior three at 2.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RS
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 3.600000% in June 2026, up from May's 3.200000%, marking continued economic expansion. This acceleration follows a steady increase from 2.0% in April 2025 to 3.6% in June 2026. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of sustained growth amid current monetary policy. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | RS | Producer Price Index YoY | 7 | 6.5 | 7.40 | Low | |