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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Serbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, up 1.0% from December's 2.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.0% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Serbia) was reported at 3.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.24%, ranging from 2% to 3.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.53%, up from the prior three at 2.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RS
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 3.2% in April, beating the 3.0% estimate and up from March's 2.2%. This acceleration signals stronger economic growth momentum compared to the previous month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank policy adjustments amid this expansion. Updated 6/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.