RS Gross Domestic Product YoY: December 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-on-year (YoY) growth figure for RS, released on December 1, 2025, confirms a steady economic expansion at 2.00%. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database to contextualize this reading against historical trends and assess its broader macroeconomic implications. The analysis covers geographic and temporal scope, core macroeconomic indicators, monetary and fiscal policy, external shocks, financial market reactions, and structural trends shaping RS’s economic outlook.
Table of Contents
The December 2025 GDP YoY growth rate for RS stands at 2.00%, unchanged from October and November but slightly below the 2.10% recorded in September. This figure aligns with the Sigmanomics database consensus estimate of 2.00%, reflecting a stable but moderate pace of economic growth. Over the past year, RS’s GDP growth has moderated from a peak of 3.30% in February 2025, signaling a transition from post-pandemic recovery to a more normalized expansion phase.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output steady, contributing 0.80 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Services sector growth slowed slightly, adding 0.70 pp versus 0.90 pp last quarter.
- Consumer spending remained resilient, supporting 0.50 pp.
Policy pulse
The 2.00% growth rate sits near the central bank’s inflation target range, suggesting limited pressure for immediate monetary tightening. The National Bank of RS has maintained its policy rate at 3.50% since September, balancing growth support with inflation control.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RSD currency appreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in steady growth. Short-term government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling mild inflation expectations.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the GDP reading reveal a mixed but stable economic environment. Inflation in RS has hovered around 3.20% YoY, slightly above the central bank’s 3% target but within tolerance. Unemployment remains low at 5.10%, supporting consumer demand. Industrial production growth slowed to 1.80% YoY, while retail sales expanded 2.30% YoY, indicating steady domestic consumption.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of RS has kept the policy rate steady at 3.50% for four consecutive months. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.50% YoY, with lending standards unchanged. Inflation expectations are well-anchored, and real interest rates hover near zero, providing a neutral monetary stance.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary but cautious. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 3.40% a year earlier, reflecting improved tax revenues and controlled spending. Infrastructure investment continues to support medium-term growth prospects.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RSD government bond 2-year yield increased by 7 basis points, reflecting slightly higher inflation risk premiums. The RSD/EUR exchange rate strengthened by 0.30%, while equity markets showed mild gains in industrial sectors.
This chart highlights a stable but decelerating growth trend in RS’s GDP. The economy is transitioning from a recovery-driven surge to a steady expansion phase, with manufacturing and services sectors maintaining momentum. The data suggest resilience amid global uncertainties but caution against expecting rapid acceleration.
Looking ahead, RS’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline forecast anticipates growth holding near 2.00% through mid-2026, supported by stable domestic demand and moderate fiscal stimulus. Inflation is expected to remain near target, allowing the central bank to maintain a neutral policy stance.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected export growth driven by easing global supply chain disruptions.
- Accelerated infrastructure spending boosts construction and services sectors.
- GDP growth rises to 2.50% YoY by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Growth remains stable at 2.00% YoY.
- Monetary policy stays on hold with inflation near target.
- Fiscal deficit narrows gradually, supporting sustainable growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks such as geopolitical tensions disrupt trade flows.
- Inflation spikes force monetary tightening, slowing credit growth.
- GDP growth falls below 1.50% YoY by late 2026.
RS’s December 2025 GDP YoY growth of 2.00% reflects a steady economic environment amid moderate inflation and balanced fiscal policy. The economy appears resilient to current external risks but remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and global market volatility. Policymakers face the challenge of sustaining growth without overheating inflation. Financial markets have responded positively to the stable growth outlook, with the RSD currency and bond yields adjusting moderately. Structural trends, including gradual digitalization and demographic shifts, will shape RS’s long-run growth trajectory.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
The GDP YoY release for RS is closely watched by investors in currency, bond, and equity markets. Key tradable symbols historically sensitive to RS’s economic data include the RSDUSD currency pair, reflecting exchange rate adjustments; the RSIND stock index, which tracks industrial sector performance; the RSFIN financial sector ETF; the RSBTC crypto asset, which often reacts to macro risk sentiment; and the EURRSD pair, sensitive to cross-border capital flows.
GDP vs. RSDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, RS’s GDP growth and the RSDUSD exchange rate have shown a positive correlation. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as early 2021 and 2023, coincided with RSD appreciation against the USD. Conversely, GDP slowdowns aligned with RSD depreciation phases. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to domestic economic fundamentals and external confidence.
FAQ
- What is the latest GDP YoY growth rate for RS?
- The most recent GDP YoY growth rate for RS is 2.00%, as of December 1, 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database.
- How does the current GDP growth compare to previous months?
- The 2.00% growth rate is stable compared to October and November 2025 but slightly below the 2.10% recorded in September 2025.
- What are the main risks to RS’s GDP growth outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions disrupting trade, inflation spikes prompting monetary tightening, and global economic volatility impacting exports.
Takeaway: RS’s economy is on a steady growth path near 2.00% YoY, balancing inflation and fiscal discipline, but remains exposed to external shocks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December 2025 GDP YoY growth rate of 2.00% matches the previous two months and is slightly below the 12-month average of 2.10%. This stability contrasts with the sharper 3.30% growth seen in February 2025, indicating a moderation phase.
Quarterly GDP components show manufacturing and services as the main growth pillars, while agriculture and construction have contributed less than 0.30 pp combined. Consumer spending remains a steady driver, though its growth rate has softened from 3.00% YoY in mid-2025 to 2.10% currently.