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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Serbia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 3.8% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from March's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.6% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.6
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Serbia) was reported at 3.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.71%, ranging from 2% to 3.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at 2.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RS
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 3.800000% in August, beating the 3.600000% estimate and up from July's 3.600000%. This marks continued economic expansion compared to the prior 3.200000% in June. Market focus remains on sustained growth amid stable monetary policy ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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