The latest inflation rate YoY for RS, released on November 12, 2025, registered at 2.80%, slightly below the 2.90% recorded in October and well down from the 4.90% peak in August. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the full calendar year 2025 to date, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends in RS’s economy.

Drivers this month

• Shelter costs contributed 0.15 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
• Food prices moderated, subtracting -0.10 pp from the headline rate.
• Energy prices remained stable, with a neutral impact on monthly inflation.

Policy pulse

The 2.80% inflation rate remains just below the central bank’s 3% target, signaling a successful containment of price pressures despite earlier volatility. Monetary policy has remained steady, with the National Bank of RS maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% since September 2025.

Market lens

Following the inflation release, the RS currency (RSD) appreciated modestly by 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields edged down 5 basis points, reflecting market confidence in inflation stability. Breakeven inflation rates for the next 12 months held steady near 3%.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation reveals a mixed but generally stable economic environment in RS. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was reported at 2.10% YoY, slightly below the 2.30% average for the first half of the year. Unemployment remained steady at 6.20%, while wage growth slowed to 3.00% YoY, consistent with easing inflation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of RS has held interest rates steady at 3.50% since September, balancing inflation containment with growth support. Credit growth has slowed to 4.50% YoY, down from 6.00% earlier in 2025, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainties.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a deficit of 3.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, slightly wider than the 2.80% average in 2024. Increased infrastructure spending and social programs aim to support growth but pose inflationary risks if unchecked.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity prices have stabilized after mid-year volatility, easing imported inflation pressures. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks to price stability and growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RSD currency strengthened 0.30%, while 2-year yields declined 5 basis points, reflecting market relief at the inflation moderation. Breakeven inflation rates remained steady, signaling confidence in inflation anchoring.

Looking ahead, inflation in RS faces a balance of risks. The baseline forecast projects inflation stabilizing around 2.70–3.00% through mid-2026, supported by steady monetary policy and subdued commodity prices. However, geopolitical tensions and fiscal expansion could push inflation higher.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global commodity prices decline sharply, easing imported inflation.
• Fiscal consolidation reduces deficit below 2.50% of GDP.
• Inflation falls below 2.50%, allowing for monetary easing.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Inflation remains near 2.80–3.00%, consistent with central bank target.
• Monetary policy stays on hold, supporting moderate growth.
• External shocks remain contained, with stable commodity prices.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting supply chains.
• Fiscal stimulus intensifies, pushing deficit above 3.50% of GDP.
• Inflation rises above 3.50%, forcing monetary tightening.

RS’s inflation rate easing to 2.80% YoY in November 2025 signals a positive shift toward price stability. The moderation from mid-year highs reflects effective monetary policy and easing external pressures. However, vigilance is required given fiscal expansion and geopolitical uncertainties. Financial markets have responded with cautious optimism, pricing in stable inflation and steady interest rates. Policymakers should monitor wage dynamics and commodity prices closely to sustain this trajectory.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation data in RS typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets. The RSD currency often strengthens on lower-than-expected inflation, while government bond yields adjust to inflation expectations. Equities in consumer staples and financial sectors also respond to inflation trends. Below are five tradable symbols with historic sensitivity to RS inflation movements:

• RSDUSD – RS currency pair, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
• BELEX15 – RS stock market index, reflects economic and inflation outlook.
• TDJ – Serbian bank stock, impacted by interest rate and inflation changes.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge globally.
• EURRSD – Euro to RSD exchange rate, sensitive to inflation differentials.

FAQs

What is the current inflation rate YoY for RS?

The latest inflation rate YoY for RS is 2.80% as of November 2025.

How does the November 2025 inflation compare to previous months?

Inflation eased from 2.90% in October to 2.80% in November, down from a mid-year peak of 4.90% in August.

What are the main risks to RS inflation going forward?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, fiscal expansion, and commodity price volatility.

Takeaway: RS inflation is moderating toward the central bank’s target, but external and fiscal risks require close monitoring to sustain price stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.