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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Interest Rate Decision held to 5.75% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Serbia Interest Rate Decision held to 5.75% in July 2026. The reading matched the 5.75% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 5.75%, vs 5.75% in the prior 3-month window. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
5.75
Actual
5.75
Consensus
5.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.75
Actual: 5.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Serbia) was reported at 5.75% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.75% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.75%, ranging from 5.75% to 5.75% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.75%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.07%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 5.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - RS
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About Interest Rate Decision — Serbia
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.75 %, consensus 5.75 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.75 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | RS | Balance of Trade | -898.7 | -720.4 | -790 | -844.35 | Low |
| 10:00 | RS | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.55 | Low |
| 10:00 | RS | Retail Sales YoY | 4.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 4.00 | Low |
| 10:00 | RS | Industrial Production YoY | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 1.80 | Low |