Serbia Holds Interest Rate at 5.75% for Tenth Straight Month
The National Bank of Serbia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% in March 2026, matching both February's level and the central bank's stated policy target. This marks a full year of unchanged rates, underscoring a cautious stance as inflationary pressures persist but show signs of stabilization.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Inflation moderation: core CPI growth slowed
- Stable RSD: currency volatility remained muted
- External balances: current account deficit narrowed
Policy pulse
The March 2026 policy rate of 5.75% aligns with the National Bank of Serbia's inflation-targeting framework. The rate has remained unchanged since June 2025, reflecting a deliberate pause after a tightening cycle that began in 2022.
Market lens
Market reaction was muted following the announcement. Bond yields and the RSD/EUR exchange rate showed little movement, as investors had fully priced in a hold. The lack of surprise reinforced confidence in the central bank's commitment to price stability.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Headline inflation: 5.2% YoY in February vs. 5.6% in January[1]
- GDP growth: 2.1% YoY in Q4 2025[1]
- Unemployment: 9.5% in Q4 2025[1]
Policy pulse
With inflation easing but still above the 3% ±1.5pp target band, the central bank maintained its restrictive stance. The steady rate signals ongoing vigilance against second-round effects.
Market lens
Serbian government bonds traded in a narrow range. The yield on the 10-year RSD bond hovered near 6.1%, unchanged from February, reflecting stable inflation expectations and policy credibility.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The flat trajectory since June 2025 signals a clear policy pause. The central bank is prioritizing inflation control, but the absence of further hikes suggests confidence that previous tightening is working through the economy. The risk of renewed inflation or external shocks remains a key watchpoint.
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
- Inflation: trending lower but above target
- External risks: regional energy prices, global monetary policy
- Domestic demand: steady, with moderate wage growth
Policy pulse
The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to the 3% ±1.5pp inflation target. With inflation still above the upper bound, a rate cut appears off the table for now.
Market lens
Forward rates imply little change in policy expectations. Market participants see the current stance as appropriate, with swaps pricing in a prolonged hold barring a sharp drop in inflation or external shocks.
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Inflation drops below 4%, opening room for a rate cut in H2 2026.
- Base scenario (60–70%): Rate remains at 5.75% through mid-2026 as inflation gradually converges to target.
- Bearish scenario (10–15%): External shocks or renewed price pressures force further tightening.
Data source: National Bank of Serbia, Sigmanomics database. Methodology: official policy rate, monthly frequency, cross-checked with central bank releases and macroeconomic indicators.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Policy continuity: tenth month at 5.75%
- Inflation moderation: headline and core
- Stable financial conditions
Policy pulse
The central bank's steady hand has anchored expectations. With inflation easing but not yet at target, the current stance is likely to persist until clearer disinflation emerges.
Market lens
Investors remain confident in the central bank's approach. The RSD and local bonds continue to reflect policy credibility, with volatility subdued and risk premiums contained.
Key Markets Reacting to Interest Rate Decision
Serbia's interest rate decision has ripple effects across regional forex and global risk assets. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, show notable sensitivity to shifts in Serbian monetary policy. Each reflects a distinct market channel, from currency pairs to global equities and digital assets.
- EURUSD: The euro's performance against the dollar often mirrors sentiment toward emerging European currencies, including the RSD.
- AAPL: Apple shares can be sensitive to global risk appetite, which is influenced by emerging market rate decisions.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin's price action sometimes tracks shifts in regional monetary policy, especially during periods of currency volatility.
| Year | Serbia Rate (%) | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.25 | +80.7 |
| 2021 | 1.00 | +34.0 |
| 2022 | 2.50 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 5.50 | +48.2 |
| 2024 | 5.75 | +48.1 |
| 2025 | 5.75 | +49.0 |
This table highlights the relationship between Serbia's policy rate and AAPL's annual performance since 2020. While direct causality is limited, periods of rate hikes have coincided with shifts in global equity momentum.
FAQ: Serbia Holds Interest Rate at 5.75% for Tenth Straight Month
- What does the unchanged interest rate mean for Serbian borrowers and savers?
- The steady 5.75% rate means loan and deposit rates are likely to remain stable, supporting predictability for households and businesses.
- Why has the National Bank of Serbia kept the rate at 5.75% for so long?
- The central bank is prioritizing inflation control, as inflation remains above target despite recent moderation.
- How does the interest rate decision affect the RSD and regional markets?
- Stable rates help anchor the RSD and reduce volatility in regional forex and bond markets, reinforcing policy credibility.
Serbia's central bank continues to prioritize stability, holding rates steady as inflation gradually moderates.
Updated 3/12/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] National Bank of Serbia, Monetary Policy Report, February 2026; Sigmanomics database, accessed March 2026.
The policy rate held at 5.75% in March, matching February and the 12-month average. Since June 2025, the rate has remained at this level, following a series of hikes that began in 2022. The last change occurred in June 2023, when the rate was raised from 5.5% to 5.75%.
Over the past ten months, the central bank has opted for stability, with the rate unchanged from June 2025 through March 2026. This period contrasts with the preceding twelve months, which saw three rate hikes totaling 75 basis points.