RS Producer Price Index YoY: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year (YoY) reading for RS, released on November 5, 2025, shows a 1.50% increase. This figure marks a slight deceleration from October’s 1.80% but remains above the market estimate of 1.20%. Drawing from the Sigmanomics database, this report contextualizes the current PPI trend against historical data, explores its macroeconomic significance, and assesses implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and financial markets amid ongoing geopolitical and structural challenges.
Table of Contents
The Producer Price Index YoY for RS rose by 1.50% in November 2025, down from 1.80% in October but above the 1.20% consensus. This moderate inflation in producer prices signals persistent cost pressures in the supply chain, albeit with some easing from last month’s peak. Over the past 12 months, PPI has trended upward from negative territory in early 2025, reflecting a recovery from deflationary pressures seen in April (-0.10%) and May (-0.40%).
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed approximately 0.50 percentage points to the PPI increase, reflecting global commodity price volatility.
- Intermediate goods prices rose by 0.40 percentage points, driven by supply chain adjustments.
- Core manufacturing prices added 0.30 percentage points, indicating steady industrial demand.
Policy pulse
The current PPI reading sits above the central bank’s inflation target range of 1.00%–1.30%, suggesting mild upward pressure on producer costs. This may influence the National Bank of RS to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RSD currency strengthened 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting increased inflation expectations. Breakeven inflation rates edged up by 0.10 percentage points, signaling market anticipation of sustained price pressures.
The PPI YoY is a critical indicator of upstream inflationary trends that often presage consumer price movements. The 1.50% increase in RS’s PPI contrasts with the subdued readings earlier in 2025, where the index hovered near zero or negative. This shift aligns with broader macroeconomic indicators showing moderate economic expansion and rising input costs.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
With inflationary pressures evident in producer prices, the National Bank of RS has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75% since September 2025. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 4.20% YoY. The PPI uptick may prompt the central bank to signal a potential rate hike if inflation expectations become unanchored.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with the government running a 3.50% of GDP deficit to support infrastructure and social programs. Rising producer prices could increase government expenditure on subsidies or social transfers if inflation spills over to consumer prices, potentially widening the fiscal gap.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity price volatility, especially in energy markets, has been a key driver of PPI fluctuations. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to pose downside risks to price stability and economic growth in RS.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RSD currency appreciated modestly, while short-term bond yields increased, reflecting market recalibration to persistent inflation signals. Breakeven inflation rates rose slightly, reinforcing expectations of continued inflationary pressures.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in RS’s producer prices since mid-2025, reversing earlier deflation. The moderation in November suggests inflation pressures may be stabilizing but remain elevated relative to historical norms.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be shaped by several factors including global commodity prices, domestic demand, and policy responses. Three scenarios emerge:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing input costs.
- Supply chain bottlenecks resolve, reducing cost pressures.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth.
- PPI growth slows to below 1.00% by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate commodity price volatility persists.
- Supply constraints ease gradually.
- Monetary policy tightens slightly to contain inflation.
- PPI stabilizes around 1.30%–1.60% in the near term.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks drive energy prices higher.
- Supply chain disruptions intensify.
- Fiscal pressures increase, limiting policy flexibility.
- PPI accelerates above 2.00%, risking broader inflation.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term, RS faces structural inflation risks from energy dependency and limited industrial diversification. The PPI’s recent rebound underscores the need for policy focus on supply-side reforms and energy efficiency to mitigate persistent cost pressures.
The November 2025 PPI YoY reading of 1.50% signals ongoing inflationary pressures in RS’s production sectors. While slightly down from October’s peak, the index remains elevated compared to early 2025. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting growth amid external uncertainties and fiscal constraints.
Financial markets have responded with modest tightening in yields and currency strength, reflecting inflation concerns. The outlook remains mixed, with risks tilted toward inflation persistence if external shocks intensify. Structural reforms and prudent monetary-fiscal coordination will be key to sustaining price stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index YoY
The Producer Price Index YoY for RS is closely watched by investors and policymakers as a leading indicator of inflation trends. Markets sensitive to inflation expectations and monetary policy adjustments typically react to PPI releases. The following tradable symbols historically track or influence the PPI dynamics in RS:
- RSB – RS’s leading industrial stock, highly correlated with producer price shifts.
- USDRSD – The USD to RSD currency pair, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy changes.
- BTCRSD – Bitcoin priced in RSD, reflecting risk sentiment and inflation hedging demand.
- RSI – RS’s industrial sector ETF, tracking broad producer price trends.
- EURRSD – Euro to RSD exchange rate, influenced by regional inflation and trade flows.
Insight: Producer Price Index vs. RSB Stock Since 2020
Since 2020, the RS Producer Price Index and RSB stock price have shown a positive correlation, with RSB often leading PPI movements by 1–2 months. Periods of rising producer prices have coincided with increased industrial profitability, boosting RSB’s valuation. Conversely, sharp PPI declines have preceded stock corrections. This relationship underscores the PPI’s role as a barometer for industrial sector health in RS.
| Year | Avg PPI YoY (%) | RSB Annual Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.30 | -12.50 |
| 2021 | 0.80 | 18.20 |
| 2022 | 1.20 | 22.70 |
| 2023 | 0.50 | 5.40 |
| 2024 | 1.00 | 12.10 |
FAQs on RS Producer Price Index YoY
- What is the RS Producer Price Index YoY?
- The RS Producer Price Index YoY measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output compared to the same month last year.
- How does the PPI affect inflation?
- PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as rising producer costs often pass through to retail prices over time.
- Why is the PPI important for investors?
- Investors use PPI data to gauge inflation trends, anticipate central bank policy moves, and assess sectoral profitability.
The November 2025 PPI YoY reading confirms persistent inflationary pressures in RS’s production sectors, requiring vigilant policy and market attention to navigate evolving risks and opportunities.
Updated 11/6/25
RSB – RS’s leading industrial stock, closely tied to producer price trends.
USDRSD – USD to RSD currency pair, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
BTCRSD – Bitcoin priced in RSD, reflecting inflation hedging demand.
RSI – RS industrial sector ETF, tracking broad producer price movements.
EURRSD – Euro to RSD exchange rate, influenced by regional inflation and trade.
The November 2025 PPI YoY reading of 1.50% represents a slight decline from October’s 1.80% but remains well above the 12-month average of 0.40%. This indicates a sustained upward trend in producer prices after a period of deflation in early 2025.
Comparing the current print to the April 2025 low of -0.10% and May’s -0.40%, the index has rebounded strongly, reflecting recovering demand and cost pressures in the supply chain. The moderation from October’s peak suggests some easing of inflationary momentum.