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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 9.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Serbia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 9.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.8% from July's 6.2% reading. The print exceeded the 6.3% consensus by 2.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.54%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 6.6%, vs 7.17% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
9
Actual
6.3
Consensus
6.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.7
Actual: 9
Error: -3.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Serbia) was reported at 9% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.3% by 2.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.76%, ranging from -0.3% to 9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.4%, up from the prior three at 2.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.32%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.88%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RS
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Producer Price Index YoY surged to 9.000000% in September, beating the 6.300000% estimate and rising sharply from August's 6.200000%. This marks a significant acceleration in producer price inflation, indicating stronger cost pressures in the economy. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank responses amid this unexpected jump. Updated 9/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 9 %, consensus 6.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 6.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | RS | Current Account | -1022 | -300 | -300.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | RS | Current Account | -1022 | -300 | -300.00 | Low | |