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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 10.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Serbia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 10.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.5% from August's 9.0% reading. The print exceeded the 10.0% consensus by 0.5%. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 7.6%, vs 7.73% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
10.5
Actual
10
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 10.6
Actual: 10.5
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Serbia) was reported at 10.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.63%, ranging from -0.3% to 10.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 8.57%, up from the prior three at 5.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.8%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.93%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RS
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 10.500000% in September, beating the 10.000000% estimate. This marks an increase from August's 9.000000%, indicating accelerating producer price inflation. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank responses amid persistent price pressures. Updated 10/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 10.5 %, consensus 10 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | RS | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Low | |