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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 7.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Serbia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 7.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.4% from May's 8.4% reading. The reading missed the 9.1% consensus by 2.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.44%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 8.1%, vs 1.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
7
Actual
9.1
Consensus
8.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 9.05
Actual: 7
Error: +2.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Serbia) was reported at 7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.1% by 2.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.34%, ranging from -0.3% to 8.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.2%, up from the prior three at 1.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RS
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
Serbia's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 7.000000% for June, missing the 9.100000% estimate. This marks a decline from May's 8.400000%, indicating a slowdown in producer price inflation. The softer reading may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming monetary policy decisions. Updated 7/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7 %, consensus 9.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 8.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 7.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | RS | Producer Price Index YoY | 7 | 6.5 | 7.40 | Low | |