Russia’s balance of trade for November 2025 reached RUB 13.60 billion, a sharp increase from October’s RUB 7.47 billion and well above the consensus estimate of RUB 12.30 billion. This figure marks the highest monthly surplus in over six months, reflecting stronger export performance amid fluctuating global demand and commodity prices.

Drivers this month

• Energy exports, particularly oil and gas, contributed significantly to the surplus, buoyed by higher global prices.
• Non-energy exports showed modest growth, supported by metals and agricultural products.
• Imports remained subdued due to ongoing sanctions and cautious domestic demand.

Policy pulse

The current surplus aligns with the Central Bank of Russia’s efforts to stabilize the ruble and manage inflation. The trade balance supports foreign currency reserves, aiding monetary policy flexibility amid tightening global financial conditions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RUB/USD pair strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in Russia’s external position. Short-term government bond yields edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the balance of trade reveals a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture. Inflation remains elevated at 6.80% YoY, while industrial production grew 2.10% in October. The trade surplus provides a buffer against external pressures, supporting the ruble and easing imported inflation risks.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of Russia has maintained its key rate at 7.50%, balancing inflation control with growth support. The improved trade balance strengthens the ruble, potentially reducing imported inflation and allowing for a more measured monetary stance.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline continues, with the government running a modest surplus in the latest quarter. Higher trade revenues contribute to budget stability, enabling targeted spending on infrastructure and social programs without excessive borrowing.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions remain significant risks. However, Russia’s diversified export base and pivot to alternative markets have mitigated some impacts. Commodity price volatility, especially in oil and gas, remains a key external factor influencing trade outcomes.

Drivers this month

• Energy exports rose by approximately 12% MoM, driven by stronger crude oil prices averaging $85/barrel.
• Metal exports increased 5%, supported by global demand recovery in China and Europe.
• Import volumes contracted 3%, reflecting cautious consumer spending and supply chain adjustments.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: RUB/USD appreciated 0.40%, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment and reduced currency risk premia.

Looking ahead, Russia’s balance of trade trajectory will depend on several factors, including commodity price trends, geopolitical developments, and domestic demand conditions. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued strength in energy prices and export volumes.
• Improved access to alternative markets despite sanctions.
• Stable or strengthening ruble supports import substitution and inflation control.
• Trade surplus sustains above RUB 12 billion monthly.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Commodity prices remain volatile but stable on average.
• Exports grow modestly; imports remain subdued.
• Trade surplus fluctuates between RUB 9-13 billion.
• Monetary and fiscal policies maintain current course.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity price shocks or renewed sanctions disrupt exports.
• Domestic demand weakens further, reducing import capacity.
• Trade surplus falls below RUB 8 billion, pressuring the ruble.
• Monetary tightening intensifies to contain inflation risks.

Russia’s November 2025 balance of trade rebound to RUB 13.60 billion underscores the country’s external sector resilience amid complex global challenges. While risks from geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility persist, the current data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook. Policymakers should leverage this strength to maintain macroeconomic stability and prepare for potential external shocks.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

The balance of trade is a critical indicator for several markets. The ruble (RUB/USD) typically reacts strongly to trade data, as do Russian sovereign bonds. Energy-related stocks and commodities also track these figures closely. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to Russia’s trade dynamics:

• RUBUSD – Directly impacted by trade balance fluctuations affecting currency strength.
• GAZP – Gazprom’s stock price correlates with energy export revenues.
• SBER – Sberbank’s performance reflects broader economic conditions influenced by trade.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as a risk sentiment barometer amid geopolitical tensions.
• EURRUB – Euro-ruble pair sensitive to trade and geopolitical developments.

FAQs

What is Russia’s balance of trade and why does it matter?

The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports. A surplus indicates more exports, supporting economic growth and currency strength.

How does the balance of trade affect Russia’s monetary policy?

A strong trade surplus bolsters foreign reserves and the ruble, allowing the Central Bank to manage inflation and interest rates more effectively.

What risks could impact Russia’s trade balance going forward?

Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and commodity price volatility are key risks that could reduce export revenues and weaken the trade surplus.

Key takeaway: Russia’s November trade surplus rebound signals external sector resilience, but vigilance is needed amid ongoing geopolitical and commodity risks.