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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Balance of Trade climbed to 13.59B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Balance of Trade climbed to 13.59B in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.13B from June's 12.46B reading. The reading matched the 13.5B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.72B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 13.31B, vs 10.25B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13.59
Actual
13.5
Consensus
12.46
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.23 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 13.6
Actual: 13.59
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Russia) was reported at 13.59 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 13.50 billion by 0.09 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 12.46 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.44 billion, ranging from 6.60 billion to 14.15 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.40 billion, up from the prior three at 10.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.56 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.29 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 11.82 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.23 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - RU
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About Balance of Trade — Russia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 13.59 B, consensus 13.5 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 12.46 B. Before that (May 2026): 14.15 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |