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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Balance of Trade climbed to 14.15B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Russia Balance of Trade climbed to 14.15B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 3.14B from April's 11.01B reading. The print exceeded the 11.7B consensus by 2.45B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 9.98B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 12.7B, vs 7.32B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 25 months.
Latest Release
14.15
Actual
11.7
Consensus
11.01
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.49 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 11.39
Actual: 14.15
Error: -2.76
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Russia) was reported at 14.15 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.70 billion by 2.45 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.01 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.08 billion, ranging from 6.60 billion to 14.15 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.18 billion, up from the prior three at 9.25 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.57 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.10 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 11.83 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.49 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - RU
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About Balance of Trade — Russia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 14.15 B, consensus 11.7 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 11.43 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 13.97 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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