Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Balance of Trade fell to 11.43B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Russia Balance of Trade fell to 11.43B in April 2026, released June 2026, down 2.85B from March's 14.28B reading. The reading missed the 14.9B consensus by 3.47B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.01B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 9.66B, vs 8.31B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.43
Actual
14.9
Consensus
14.28
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.02 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 16.01
Actual: 11.43
Error: +4.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Russia) was reported at 11.43 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.90 billion by 3.47 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.28 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.54 billion, ranging from 6.60 billion to 13.97 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.67 billion, down from the prior three at 11.59 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.44 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.30 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 10.38 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.02 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product YoY (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - RU
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Russia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 11.43 B, consensus 14.9 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 13.97 B. Before that (Feb 2026): 5.35 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.