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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Business Confidence climbed to -1.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Business Confidence climbed to -1.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's -1.1% reading. The print exceeded the -1.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.58%. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-1.1
Consensus
-1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.75
Actual: -1
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Russia) was reported at -1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.8%, ranging from -1.8% to 0.7% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.07%, down from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.84%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.98%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - RU
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About Business Confidence — Russia
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1 %, consensus -1.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1.2 %. Before that (May 2026): -1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |