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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 1.2% from December's 1.0% reading. The reading matched the -0.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.79%, vs -0.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.23
Actual: -0.2
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Russia) was reported at -0.2% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.52%, ranging from -2.1% to 1.9% across 18 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at -0.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.23%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 19) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY contracted by -0.200000% in May, matching estimates and reversing April's 1.000000% growth. This marks a sharp downturn from April's expansion, signaling a notable economic slowdown. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases and central bank responses amid this unexpected contraction. Updated 6/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.