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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.8% from May's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.4%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 49th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.67
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Russia) was reported at 1.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.51%, ranging from -2.1% to 1.9% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.73%, up from the prior three at -1.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.99%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.24%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY for June rose to 1.100000%, beating the 0.700000% estimate and up from May's 0.300000%. This marks a clear acceleration in economic growth compared to the previous month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank policy amid this stronger-than-expected expansion. Updated 7/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50.55 | Medium | |