Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 1.3% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.6% from March's 1.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.4% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.73%, vs -0.32% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.4
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Russia) was reported at 1.3% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -2.1% to 1.9% across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, down from the prior three at -0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.01%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.23%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 1.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Gross Domestic Product YoY - RU
Loading chart data...
About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May came in at 1.300000%, missing the 1.400000% estimate and down from April's 1.900000%. The slowdown signals a deceleration in economic growth compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further clarity on Russia's economic trajectory. Updated 6/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.