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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.6% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.1% from June's 1.7% reading. The reading missed the 1.4% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.77%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.73%, vs 0.79% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
1.4
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.46 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.5
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Russia) was reported at 0.6% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.4% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.45%, ranging from -2.1% to 1.9% across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.26%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.46%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY for August came in at 0.600000%, missing the 1.400000% estimate and down from July's 1.700000%. This marks a significant slowdown in annual growth, reflecting weaker economic momentum compared to the previous month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data for signs of stabilization amid ongoing economic challenges. Updated 9/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |