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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from August's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.74%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.8%, vs 0.52% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 32nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
1
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.87
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.37
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Russia) was reported at 0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.48%, ranging from -2.1% to 1.9% across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, down from the prior three at 1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.31%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - RU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY for September came in at 0.500000%, missing the 1.000000% estimate and down from August's 0.800000%. This marks a continued slowdown in annual growth, reflecting weaker economic momentum compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this deceleration. Updated 10/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 50 | 50.10 | Medium | |
| Thursday, November 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 50.7 | 51.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.1 | 51.45 | Low | |