Russia Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Russia’s November 2025 inflation rate rose 0.50% MoM, matching expectations and accelerating from 0.30% in October. This print signals persistent inflationary pressures amid mixed monetary signals and geopolitical uncertainties. Core inflation drivers include food and energy prices, while recent fiscal tightening and external shocks shape the outlook. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting cautious sentiment. Structural trends suggest inflation may remain elevated near 5-6% YoY, challenging the Central Bank’s 4% target. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios range from 30% to 50% and 20% probabilities respectively, hinging on policy responses and external risks.
Table of Contents
Russia’s inflation rate for November 2025 increased by 0.50% month-over-month, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure aligns with market expectations and marks a notable acceleration from October’s 0.30% rise. Over the past 12 months, inflation has averaged approximately 0.54% MoM, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy.
Drivers this month
- Food prices contributed 0.22 percentage points, driven by seasonal supply constraints.
- Energy costs added 0.15 percentage points amid global oil price volatility.
- Core services inflation remained steady, contributing 0.08 percentage points.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Russia’s inflation target remains at 4% YoY. The current MoM inflation rate, if annualized, suggests a YoY rate near 6%, exceeding the target and indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This challenges the monetary authority’s stance and may prompt further tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Russian ruble (RUB) weakened slightly by 0.15% against the US dollar within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting increased inflation risk premiums.
The inflation rate’s recent trajectory must be viewed alongside key macroeconomic indicators. Russia’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.10% YoY, down from 1.50% in Q2, signaling moderating demand. Unemployment remains stable at 4.70%, while wage growth accelerated to 6.30% YoY, fueling consumer price pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Russia has maintained its key interest rate at 7.50% since September 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth slowed to 3.20% YoY, reflecting cautious lending amid geopolitical risks. Inflation expectations remain elevated at 5.80% for the next 12 months.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening continues, with the government aiming for a budget surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025. Increased excise taxes on fuel and selective subsidies aim to contain inflationary spillovers. However, public spending on infrastructure remains robust, supporting medium-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions continue to pressure supply chains and energy exports. Recent volatility in global oil markets has transmitted to domestic energy prices, contributing to inflation persistence. Currency volatility remains a risk factor for imported inflation.
Drivers this month
- Food inflation accelerated from 0.18% to 0.22% MoM.
- Energy price contribution rose from 0.10% to 0.15% MoM.
- Core services inflation remained stable at 0.08% MoM.
Policy pulse
The inflation print remains above the Central Bank’s comfort zone, reinforcing the likelihood of further monetary tightening. The 0.50% MoM rate, if sustained, implies a YoY inflation rate near 6%, well above the 4% target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RUB/USD exchange rate depreciated by 0.15%, while 2-year government bond yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting market concerns over inflation persistence and potential rate hikes.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in inflation since mid-2025, reversing a brief summer slowdown. The sustained rise in food and energy prices suggests inflationary pressures will remain a key policy challenge in the near term.
Looking ahead, Russia’s inflation trajectory will depend on multiple factors, including monetary policy responses, fiscal discipline, and external developments. The Central Bank faces a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting growth amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global energy prices stabilize or decline, easing cost-push inflation.
- Monetary tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
- Fiscal consolidation reduces demand-side pressures.
- Result: Inflation falls below 4.50% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate energy price volatility persists.
- Monetary policy tightens gradually but inflation remains sticky.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral with targeted support.
- Result: Inflation stabilizes near 5.50-6% YoY through 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting supply chains further.
- Currency depreciation fuels imported inflation.
- Monetary policy lags, allowing inflation expectations to de-anchor.
- Result: Inflation exceeds 7% YoY, pressuring real incomes and growth.
Russia’s November 2025 inflation rate of 0.50% MoM underscores persistent price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While monetary and fiscal policies aim to contain inflation, external shocks and structural factors pose ongoing risks. Market reactions suggest cautious optimism but highlight sensitivity to inflation dynamics. Policymakers must remain vigilant to avoid inflation entrenchment, balancing growth and price stability in a challenging geopolitical context.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
The inflation rate MoM in Russia is closely watched by currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets. The Russian ruble (RUBUSD) typically reacts to inflation surprises due to its impact on monetary policy expectations. Government bond yields (RU2Y) adjust to inflation risk premiums. Energy-related stocks like GAZP are sensitive to inflation-driven cost changes and commodity price shifts. The broader equity market index IMOEX reflects investor sentiment on economic stability. Additionally, the cryptocurrency pair BTCUSD often moves inversely to inflation fears, acting as a speculative hedge.
Inflation vs. GAZP Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, GAZP stock price has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with Russia’s inflation rate MoM. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with higher energy prices, benefiting GAZP’s revenues. However, sharp inflation spikes can pressure input costs and dampen investor sentiment. This dynamic underscores the dual role of inflation as both a growth driver and risk factor for energy equities.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate MoM for Russia?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for Russia is 0.50% as of November 2025.
- How does the inflation rate affect Russia’s monetary policy?
- Higher inflation pressures the Central Bank of Russia to consider tightening monetary policy to meet its 4% inflation target.
- What are the main risks to Russia’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and currency fluctuations impacting imported inflation.
Takeaway: Russia’s inflation remains elevated and volatile, requiring vigilant policy action amid external uncertainties to stabilize prices and support growth.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
GAZP – Russian energy giant, sensitive to inflation and commodity price shifts.
IMOEX – Russia’s main equity index, reflects macroeconomic and inflation sentiment.
RUBUSD – Currency pair reacting to inflation and monetary policy expectations.
RUBJPY – Cross-currency pair sensitive to geopolitical and inflation risks.
BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency pair often inversely correlated with inflation fears.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 0.50% MoM marks an increase from October’s 0.34% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.45%. This uptick reverses the slight dip observed in September (-0.40%) and signals renewed upward momentum in consumer prices.
Comparing historical data, the current reading is below the February 2025 peak of 1.20% but above the subdued July 2025 level of 0.20%. This volatility reflects seasonal factors and external shocks impacting supply chains and commodity prices.