Key Takeaways: Russia’s annual inflation rate eased to 5.9% in February 2026, down from January’s 6.0%. This marks the lowest reading since December and continues a steady disinflation trend from mid-2025 highs. The figure remains above the Bank of Russia’s 4% target, keeping policy settings in focus.
Russia’s Inflation Rate YoY Slips to 5.9% in February
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February 2026 inflation rate: 5.9% YoY
- January 2026: 6.0% YoY
- December 2025: 6.6% YoY
- Peak in May 2025: 10.2% YoY
Drivers This Month
- Food prices: +0.22pp
- Utilities: +0.13pp
- Transport: +0.08pp
- Clothing: -0.04pp
Policy Pulse
The 5.9% reading remains well above the Bank of Russia’s 4% inflation target. Policymakers continue to monitor persistent price pressures, especially in food and utilities sectors[1].Market Lens
Ruble-denominated assets saw muted reaction as the print aligned with consensus. The steady disinflation trend since mid-2025 has tempered volatility, with investors awaiting signals on future rate adjustments.Foundational Indicators
- 12-month average inflation (Mar 2025–Feb 2026): 7.5%
- 6-month trend: Down from 8.8% (Aug 2025) to 5.9% (Feb 2026)
- 2-month change: -0.7pp (from 6.6% in Dec 2025)
Drivers This Month
- Food inflation: Remained elevated, contributing most to headline
- Energy: Stable, minimal impact
- Core goods: Slight moderation
Policy Pulse
The Bank of Russia’s 4% target remains distant. The current reading is the lowest since December, but policymakers have signaled vigilance on upside risks[1].Market Lens
Government bond yields held steady after the release. The inflation trajectory supports a wait-and-see approach among fixed income investors.
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a pronounced disinflation trend since mid-2025, but the recent flattening signals that further progress toward the 4% target may prove challenging. Persistent food and utility inflation are acting as brakes on the pace of improvement.
Drivers This Month
- Food: Largest contributor to headline
- Utilities: Continued upward pressure
- Clothing: Slight drag on overall rate
Chart Dynamics
February’s 5.9% inflation print edged down from January’s 6.0%, extending the disinflation streak from the 10.2% peak in May 2025. The 12-month average stands at 7.5%, underscoring the persistent gap above the central bank’s target. Over the past six months, inflation has fallen by nearly 3 percentage points, with the sharpest declines seen between August and December 2025.The latest data point marks the third consecutive month of easing price growth. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed since the start of 2026, with only a 0.1pp drop from January to February. This suggests that underlying price pressures, particularly in food and utilities, remain sticky.