Russia Producer Price Index MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for Russia posted a 0.90% month-on-month increase in November 2025, surpassing expectations and signaling renewed inflationary pressures in the industrial sector. This report analyzes the recent PPI data using the Sigmanomics database, compares it with historical trends, and assesses the broader macroeconomic and financial implications for Russia amid evolving geopolitical and fiscal conditions.
Table of Contents
The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Russia rose by 0.90% MoM in November 2025, well above the -0.50% consensus estimate and up from 0.50% in October. This marks a return to the higher inflationary territory last seen in March and August 2025, both months also recording 0.90% increases. The PPI’s upward momentum reflects cost pressures in manufacturing and energy sectors, which have been volatile due to external shocks and domestic policy shifts.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp) to the PPI increase, reflecting higher global oil and gas prices.
- Manufacturing input costs added 0.30 pp, driven by rising raw material prices and supply chain constraints.
- Food processing industries accounted for 0.15 pp, linked to seasonal demand and export restrictions.
- Transportation and logistics costs added 0.10 pp amid higher fuel prices and sanctions-related disruptions.
Policy pulse
The PPI reading exceeds the Central Bank of Russia’s inflation target range of 4% annual CPI inflation, signaling potential upstream inflation pressures. The central bank may interpret this as a signal to maintain or tighten monetary policy, especially given persistent external risks and ruble volatility.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RUB/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 8 basis points, reflecting inflation concerns. Breakeven inflation swaps for the next 12 months increased by 12 basis points, indicating market expectations of sustained inflationary pressure.
The PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation and overall economic health. Russia’s 0.90% MoM increase in November contrasts with the subdued readings from April through July 2025, when the PPI averaged -1.35% MoM, reflecting a period of disinflation amid weaker demand and sanctions impacts. The recent rebound aligns with a pickup in commodity prices and supply-side constraints.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of Russia has maintained a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. The November PPI surge may prompt a reassessment of the current 7.50% policy rate, especially as inflation expectations rise. Financial conditions have tightened slightly, with credit spreads widening and the ruble under pressure due to geopolitical uncertainties.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with increased government spending on infrastructure and social programs. However, rising producer prices could increase input costs for state projects, pressuring the budget. The government’s ability to manage inflation without stifling growth will be critical in the coming quarters.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Sanctions and geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains and trade flows, contributing to cost-push inflation. Recent OPEC+ decisions to limit output have supported energy prices, feeding into the PPI. Additionally, global inflationary pressures and currency volatility exacerbate domestic price dynamics.
Chart insight
The PPI’s recent trajectory indicates a reversal of the mid-year decline, trending upward as external cost pressures mount. This pattern suggests inflationary impulses may persist, potentially spilling over into consumer prices and complicating monetary policy decisions.
What This Chart Tells Us: The PPI is trending upward, reversing a multi-month decline. This signals rising producer costs that could translate into broader inflationary pressures, warranting close monitoring by policymakers and investors.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the PPI release, the Russian ruble depreciated modestly, while short-term bond yields climbed, reflecting heightened inflation risk perception. Inflation-linked instruments saw increased demand, pushing breakeven rates higher.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be shaped by several factors. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios outline the range of possible outcomes:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing input costs.
- Supply chain bottlenecks resolve, reducing cost pressures.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without fueling inflation.
- PPI growth moderates to 0.20–0.40% MoM in early 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Commodity prices remain elevated but volatile.
- Supply constraints persist intermittently.
- Monetary tightening continues cautiously to balance inflation and growth.
- PPI growth averages 0.60–0.90% MoM through Q1 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Further geopolitical escalation disrupts trade and energy supplies.
- Commodity prices spike sharply, pushing PPI above 1.50% MoM.
- Central bank forced into aggressive rate hikes, risking recession.
- Inflation expectations become unanchored, complicating policy response.
Structural & long-run trends
Russia’s PPI dynamics reflect deeper structural challenges, including reliance on commodity exports, vulnerability to sanctions, and limited diversification. Long-run inflation control will require structural reforms alongside prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
The November 2025 PPI reading of 0.90% MoM signals a resurgence of inflationary pressures in Russia’s production sectors. This development complicates the macroeconomic outlook amid ongoing geopolitical risks and fiscal expansion. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between containing inflation and supporting growth. Financial markets have reacted swiftly, pricing in higher inflation risk and currency volatility. Close monitoring of commodity markets, supply chains, and policy signals will be essential in the coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index MoM
The PPI is a critical gauge for markets sensitive to inflation and economic momentum. Key instruments likely to react include:
- SBER – Russia’s largest bank, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- USDRUB – The ruble’s exchange rate reflects inflation and geopolitical risk.
- GAZP – Gazprom’s stock price correlates with energy prices impacting PPI.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations and currency volatility.
- EURRUB – Euro-ruble pair tracks geopolitical and inflation-driven currency moves.
Insight: PPI vs. SBER Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, the Producer Price Index and SBER stock price have shown a moderate positive correlation. Periods of rising PPI often coincide with increased input costs, pressuring margins but also reflecting economic activity growth. Notably, sharp PPI spikes in 2021 and 2025 aligned with SBER’s volatility, underscoring inflation’s impact on financial sector valuations.
FAQ
- What is the Producer Price Index MoM for Russia?
- The Producer Price Index MoM measures the monthly change in prices received by producers in Russia. The latest reading is 0.90% for November 2025.
- How does the PPI affect Russia’s economy?
- The PPI signals inflationary pressures in production, influencing consumer prices, monetary policy, and economic growth prospects.
- Why is the PPI important for investors?
- Investors use the PPI to gauge inflation trends, which impact interest rates, currency values, and asset prices in Russia.
Key takeaway: The November 2025 PPI surge highlights persistent inflation risks in Russia, demanding vigilant policy and market attention.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 PPI reading of 0.90% MoM represents a significant acceleration compared to October’s 0.50% and is well above the 12-month average of 0.10%. This rebound follows a sharp disinflationary phase from April to July, where monthly declines averaged -1.35%. The current upward trend signals renewed cost pressures in Russia’s industrial sectors.
Comparing the current print to historical data, the last time the PPI reached 0.90% was in March and August 2025, both months characterized by spikes in global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. The November increase suggests these factors remain influential.