Saudi Arabia’s Trade Surplus Plunges to 9-Month Low in January
Saudi Arabia’s balance of trade posted a steep decline in January 2026, with the monthly surplus dropping to SAR 13.00B. This represents a 45.8% month-over-month contraction from December’s SAR 24.00B, and stands far below the SAR 26.00B recorded in November 2025. The latest print is the weakest since April 2025, underscoring mounting headwinds for the Kingdom’s export sector.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Oil exports: -SAR 6.5B MoM
- Non-oil exports: -SAR 2.1B MoM
- Imports: +SAR 1.3B MoM
Policy pulse
The January surplus of SAR 13.00B sits well below the government’s medium-term target of SAR 25.00B per month, reflecting a notable deviation from fiscal planning benchmarks.
Market lens
Saudi equities opened lower on the release, as the sharp drop in trade surplus raised concerns about export resilience and fiscal buffers. The SAR’s stability against major currencies remained intact, but investor sentiment turned more cautious, especially in sectors tied to external demand.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: SAR 13.00B
- December 2025: SAR 24.00B
- November 2025: SAR 26.00B
- October 2025: SAR 24.20B
- September 2025: SAR 26.90B
- 12-month average: SAR 23.27B
MoM and YoY
The January surplus fell SAR 11.00B from December and SAR 13.00B from November. Compared to April 2025’s SAR 30.60B, the current figure is less than half, signaling a persistent downward trend over the past nine months.
Methodology and source
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Saudi customs data[1]. The balance of trade reflects the difference between total exports and imports, reported in billions of Saudi riyals (SAR).
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart underscores a pronounced downward trajectory in Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, with January’s reading breaking below recent support levels. The persistent decline since mid-2025 signals mounting pressure on export revenues, especially as import growth remains steady. This dynamic raises questions about the sustainability of fiscal surpluses if the trend persists.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20%): Oil prices rebound and non-oil exports recover, pushing the surplus back above SAR 22.00B in coming months.
- Base (60%): Trade surplus stabilizes near SAR 15.00B as export growth remains subdued and imports hold steady.
- Bearish (20%): Further export weakness and rising imports drive the surplus below SAR 10.00B, risking a return to early 2025 lows.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include a turnaround in global energy markets and stronger demand for Saudi petrochemicals. Downside risks stem from persistent softness in oil prices and potential import acceleration tied to domestic investment projects.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Traders reacted swiftly to the downside surprise, with selling pressure in export-oriented stocks and a muted response in the currency market. The balance of trade’s sharp contraction has refocused attention on the Kingdom’s diversification efforts and the resilience of its fiscal position.
Policy pulse
While the central bank has not issued a formal response, the deviation from trade targets may prompt closer scrutiny of external balances in upcoming policy reviews.
Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
Saudi Arabia’s trade data ripple across global markets, influencing equities, currencies, and commodities. The sharp drop in the January surplus has immediate implications for companies with significant export exposure, as well as for the SAR’s standing in forex markets. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the latest figures:
- AAPL: Sensitive to global supply chain shifts and Middle East demand cycles.
- EURUSD: Moves in SAR trade flows can influence USD liquidity and cross-currency dynamics.
- BTCUSD: Crypto markets often react to macroeconomic shocks and shifts in global trade balances.
| Indicator | AAPL |
|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | Neutral |
| Jan 2021 | Positive correlation as trade surplus rose |
| Jan 2022 | Mixed, with volatility tied to oil prices |
| Jan 2023 | Negative as surplus contracted |
| Jan 2024–Jan 2026 | Increasingly sensitive to Saudi trade swings |
Since 2020, AAPL’s performance has shown a growing correlation with Saudi trade data, especially during periods of sharp surplus contraction or expansion.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Saudi Arabia’s January 2026 balance of trade figure indicate?
- The SAR 13.00B surplus for January 2026 signals a sharp contraction, marking the lowest level since April 2025 and reflecting export headwinds.
- How does this trade data impact markets?
- The drop in surplus has weighed on Saudi equities and increased scrutiny of export-driven sectors, while the SAR’s currency stability remains intact.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Balance of Trade
Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus has entered a period of heightened volatility, with January’s figure underscoring the need for vigilance on both export and import trends.
Updated 2/25/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade, accessed 2/25/26.
January’s SAR 13.00B trade surplus marks a sharp drop from December’s SAR 24.00B and sits well below the 12-month average of SAR 23.27B. The last time the surplus was this low was April 2025, when it reached SAR 30.60B. Since then, the trend has been downward, with only brief recoveries in late summer and early autumn. The January reading is also the first time since mid-2025 that the surplus has dipped below SAR 15.00B.
Volatility has increased: the surplus swung from SAR 26.90B in September 2025 to SAR 14.20B in June, then rebounded before this latest contraction. The data highlight the sensitivity of Saudi trade flows to both oil price fluctuations and shifts in global demand.