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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia Bank Lending YoY held to 6.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Saudi Arabia Bank Lending YoY held to 6.0% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 5.9% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.07%. Over the past 3 months, Bank Lending YoY averaged 5.87%, vs 6.87% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 9th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6
Actual
5.9
Consensus
6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.83 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.18
Actual: 6
Error: -0.83
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Bank Lending YoY (Saudi Arabia) was reported at 6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.9% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.76%, ranging from 5.6% to 13% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.13%, down from the prior three at 7.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.34%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nov 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Bank Lending YoY - SA
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About Bank Lending YoY — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
Bank lending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of loans and credit extended by banks. It is a key metric used to assess the overall health of the banking sector and the availability of credit in the economy. A positive YoY growth in bank lending indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the strength of the financial system and its impact on economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6 %, consensus 5.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | SA | M3 Money Supply YoY | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.20 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | SA | M3 Money Supply YoY | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.20 | Low |
| 10:00 | SA | Bank Lending YoY | 6 | 6 | 5.9 | 5.85 | Low |