Saudi Arabia CPI November 2025: Stability Amid Global Uncertainty
The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Saudi Arabia held steady at 2.20% year-over-year, matching October’s reading and slightly above the 2.00% consensus estimate. This stability follows a volatile summer with CPI near zero and a brief dip into negative territory. Core inflation drivers remain balanced despite external pressures from global energy markets and geopolitical tensions. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, while fiscal discipline supports macro stability. Forward risks include oil price shocks and regional geopolitical risks, with inflation expected to hover near target in the near term.
Table of Contents
The latest CPI release for Saudi Arabia, published on November 13, 2025, shows inflation steady at 2.20% year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from October and slightly above the 2.00% market estimate. This marks a rebound from the near-zero inflation readings recorded in August and September, reflecting a return to moderate price pressures after a summer lull. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a resilient inflation environment amid ongoing global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Shelter and housing costs contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points (pp) to the CPI, consistent with seasonal trends.
- Food and beverage prices remained stable, with minor upward pressure from imported goods.
- Energy prices, influenced by global oil market volatility, had a neutral net effect after government subsidies cushioned domestic fuel costs.
Policy pulse
The 2.20% inflation rate sits comfortably within the Saudi Central Bank’s implicit target range of 2-3%, supporting a steady monetary policy stance. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) has maintained interest rates at 5.25% since mid-2025, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Saudi Riyal (SAR) remained stable against the US dollar post-release, while short-term government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting mild inflation concerns. Breakeven inflation swaps for 2-year horizons held steady near 2.10%, signaling market confidence in inflation stability.
Saudi Arabia’s CPI trend over the past 12 months reveals a pattern of subdued inflation, with an average rate of 1.10% from November 2024 to November 2025. The current 2.20% reading doubles this average, indicating a recent uptick but still within manageable bounds. Core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, and wage growth provide context for this inflation dynamic.
GDP and labor market
Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth accelerated to 3.50% annualized in Q3 2025, supported by higher oil revenues and non-oil sector expansion. Unemployment remains low at 5.30%, with wage growth steady at 3.00%, underpinning moderate consumer demand and price pressures.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The government’s fiscal position remains robust, with a budget surplus of 2.80% of GDP projected for 2025. Continued investment in Vision 2030 projects and infrastructure spending supports economic diversification without overheating the economy. Subsidy reforms have been gradual, limiting inflationary shocks.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global oil price volatility, driven by OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, remains a key external risk. Recent escalations in regional conflicts could pressure energy prices upward, potentially feeding into domestic inflation. However, Saudi Arabia’s strategic reserves and policy buffers mitigate immediate risks.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.18 pp, consistent with seasonal rent adjustments.
- Food prices were flat, reflecting stable import costs and domestic supply.
- Energy prices had a neutral impact due to government price controls.
This chart highlights a stabilization of inflation after a volatile summer. The steady 2.20% CPI suggests that inflation is trending upward from mid-year lows but remains contained within the central bank’s comfort zone. This stability supports a balanced monetary policy outlook.
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains below the 3% upper threshold that would trigger tighter monetary policy. SAMA’s current stance of maintaining rates at 5.25% aligns with the data, suggesting no immediate rate hikes are necessary.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SAR/USD exchange rate held steady at 3.75 post-release. The 2-year government bond yield rose slightly from 3.10% to 3.15%, reflecting a mild adjustment to inflation expectations. Inflation-linked securities showed stable breakeven rates near 2.10%.
Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s inflation trajectory depends on several key factors. The base case scenario anticipates CPI remaining near 2.00-2.50% over the next 12 months, supported by stable energy prices and moderate wage growth. However, upside and downside risks remain.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Oil prices stabilize around $80/barrel, supporting government revenues and consumer confidence.
- Global supply chains improve, reducing imported inflation pressures.
- Fiscal stimulus from Vision 2030 projects boosts economic growth without overheating.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains stable at 2.00-2.50%, with balanced monetary and fiscal policies.
- Geopolitical tensions cause mild volatility but no sustained shocks.
- Government subsidy reforms proceed gradually, limiting price shocks.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Escalation in Middle East conflicts drives oil prices above $100/barrel, pushing inflation above 3.50%.
- Supply chain disruptions increase food and consumer goods prices sharply.
- Faster subsidy removal triggers domestic price spikes and inflation expectations rise.
Saudi Arabia’s November 2025 CPI reading confirms a stable inflation environment after a period of low volatility. The 2.20% YoY rate aligns with the central bank’s inflation target, supporting a steady monetary policy stance. Fiscal discipline and government buffers mitigate external shocks, though geopolitical risks and oil price volatility remain key uncertainties. Market reactions have been muted, reflecting confidence in policy frameworks. Going forward, inflation is expected to hover near target, with risks balanced between moderate upside from energy prices and downside from global supply improvements.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
The Saudi CPI influences several key markets, notably the Saudi Riyal (SARUSD), Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), Brent Crude Oil (BRENT), US Dollar Index (DXYUSD), and Bitcoin (BTCUSD). SARUSD is sensitive to inflation as it affects monetary policy and currency stability. TASI reacts to inflation through corporate earnings and consumer demand. Brent Crude impacts inflation directly via energy costs. DXYUSD reflects global risk sentiment, while BTCUSD often moves inversely to inflation expectations as a speculative hedge.
Indicator vs. SARUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Saudi CPI fluctuations have shown a moderate inverse correlation with SARUSD exchange rate movements. Periods of rising inflation typically coincide with SAR strengthening due to tighter monetary policy expectations. Conversely, inflation dips have aligned with SAR weakening, reflecting looser policy outlooks. This dynamic underscores the importance of CPI data in forex market positioning.
FAQ
- What does the latest Saudi CPI reading indicate?
- The 2.20% YoY inflation rate signals stable price growth within the central bank’s target range, supporting steady monetary policy.
- How does Saudi inflation affect monetary policy?
- Inflation near 2-3% allows the Saudi Central Bank to maintain current interest rates, balancing growth and price stability.
- What are the main risks to Saudi inflation going forward?
- Key risks include oil price shocks from geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions impacting food and consumer goods prices.
Key takeaway: Saudi Arabia’s inflation remains stable and well-managed, supporting a balanced policy outlook amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
SARUSD – Saudi Riyal to US Dollar exchange rate, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
TASI – Tadawul All Share Index, reflects corporate earnings impacted by inflation.
BRENT – Brent Crude Oil, a key driver of Saudi inflation via energy prices.
DXYUSD – US Dollar Index, gauges global risk sentiment affecting Saudi inflation outlook.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge impacting investor sentiment.









The November CPI reading of 2.20% YoY matches October’s figure and contrasts sharply with the near-zero inflation recorded in August (0.00%) and September (0.10%). The 12-month average inflation rate stands at 1.10%, indicating a recent acceleration in price growth.
Month-over-month (MoM) inflation was flat at 0.00%, signaling price stability after a -0.10% dip in October. This suggests that inflationary pressures are neither intensifying nor abating significantly in the short term.