Saudi Arabia’s Exports Drop Sharply in January: SAR 97.2B Print Misses Estimates
Saudi Arabia’s exports posted a notable decline in January 2026, falling to SAR 97.2 billion from December’s SAR 104 billion. The latest data, released February 25, 2026, highlights renewed headwinds for the Kingdom’s trade sector as global demand softened and commodity prices retreated.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Energy exports: -SAR 3.1B MoM
- Chemicals: -SAR 1.2B MoM
- Metals: +SAR 0.4B MoM
Policy pulse
January’s SAR 97.2B reading undershot the SAR 110B consensus estimate[1]. The figure remains below the 12-month average of SAR 98.8B, signaling a soft patch for external trade. The Saudi central bank targets export-driven growth as a pillar of Vision 2030, but the latest print falls short of policy ambitions.
Market lens
Market response was subdued, with regional equities and the riyal showing little movement post-release. Investors had partially priced in weaker trade data after December’s robust showing, but the scale of the drop surprised some analysts. Exporters in the energy and chemical sectors saw mild pressure, while broader sentiment held steady.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Oil prices: -4% MoM
- Non-oil exports: -SAR 0.8B MoM
- Global demand: weaker in Asia and Europe
Policy pulse
Exports have now fallen for two consecutive months, from SAR 104B in December 2025 to SAR 97.2B in January 2026. This reverses the brief rally seen in November and December. The central bank’s focus remains on stabilizing trade flows amid volatile commodity markets.
Market lens
Export-sensitive stocks saw a modest dip, while the broader market remained resilient. The muted reaction reflects expectations of a rebound later in the year, provided oil prices stabilize and global demand recovers.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios
- Bullish: Exports rebound to SAR 102–105B in Q1 2026 (20% probability) if oil prices recover and Asian demand strengthens.
- Base: Exports stabilize near SAR 98–100B (65% probability) as commodity prices find a floor and trade partners adjust inventories.
- Bearish: Exports fall below SAR 95B (15% probability) if global growth slows further or energy prices weaken.
Policy pulse
Authorities are monitoring export trends closely, with a focus on diversifying trade partners and supporting non-oil sectors. The January miss against estimates may prompt targeted policy responses if weakness persists.
Market lens
Traders are watching for signals of stabilization in energy and chemicals exports. A sustained rebound in oil prices would be the clearest catalyst for improved export performance in the coming months.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Energy and chemicals led the decline
- Non-oil exports remained soft
- Global demand headwinds persisted
Policy pulse
January’s export print underscores the importance of diversification and resilience in Saudi Arabia’s trade strategy. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as they navigate external shocks and domestic growth targets.
Market lens
Investors remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals from upcoming trade and commodity data. The muted market reaction reflects both the surprise miss and confidence in the Kingdom’s long-term economic reforms.Key Markets Reacting to Exports
Saudi Arabia’s export data impacts a range of global markets, from equities to currencies and commodities. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics’ live listings, have shown sensitivity to shifts in the Kingdom’s trade flows. Each symbol is linked to its official Sigmanomics profile for further analysis.
- AAPL — Apple’s supply chain and sales in the Middle East can be influenced by Saudi trade dynamics.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair often reacts to global commodity flows and Middle East trade data.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s price has shown correlation with risk sentiment following major Saudi economic releases.
| Month | Exports (SAR B) | AAPL (correlation) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 97.2 | -0.18 |
| Dec 2025 | 104 | +0.22 |
| Aug 2025 | 92.1 | -0.09 |
| Mar 2025 | 97.2 | +0.05 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s short-term returns have shown a modest positive correlation with Saudi export surprises, especially during periods of commodity price volatility.
FAQ
- What does the latest Saudi Arabia exports data reveal?
- January 2026 exports fell to SAR 97.2B, the lowest since August 2025, reflecting weaker energy and chemical shipments.
- How does the January 2026 figure compare to previous months?
- Exports dropped from SAR 104B in December 2025, reversing a two-month recovery and missing consensus estimates by SAR 12.8B.
- Why is the exports indicator important for Saudi Arabia?
- Exports are a key driver of Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and a central focus of Vision 2030 diversification efforts.
Saudi Arabia’s January 2026 export data signals renewed volatility and underscores the need for continued diversification.
Updated 2/25/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data: Saudi Arabia Exports, accessed 2/25/26
November 2025 saw exports at SAR 101B, while October posted SAR 99.1B. The January figure represents a reversal from the late-2025 recovery, underscoring the sector’s sensitivity to global market shifts.