Saudi Arabia Exports Report: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key takeaways: Saudi Arabia’s exports rose to SAR 101 billion in November 2025, surpassing estimates and marking a 1.90% increase from October. This growth follows a volatile year with exports fluctuating between SAR 90.30 billion and SAR 102.40 billion. The export surge reflects robust oil prices and diversified trade flows, supporting fiscal revenues amid global uncertainties. Monetary policy remains cautious as inflation pressures persist, while geopolitical risks and external shocks continue to shape trade dynamics. Financial markets responded positively, with the SAR currency strengthening and equity indices gaining. Structural trends suggest gradual export diversification, but oil remains dominant. Forward outlook balances optimism with downside risks from global demand shifts and regional tensions.
Table of Contents
Saudi Arabia’s export data for November 2025, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reveals a resilient trade performance amid a complex global environment. Exports reached SAR 101 billion, beating the consensus estimate of SAR 95 billion and improving from October’s SAR 99.10 billion. This marks a 1.90% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 7.80% rise compared to January 2025’s SAR 90.50 billion. The export trajectory reflects ongoing strength in hydrocarbon shipments, supported by elevated oil prices and steady demand from key partners such as China, India, and the UAE.
Drivers this month
- Oil exports up 2.30% MoM, driven by higher crude prices averaging $85/barrel.
- Non-oil exports stabilized at SAR 15 billion, supported by petrochemicals and plastics.
- Trade with Asia accounted for 55% of total exports, maintaining regional dominance.
Policy pulse
The Saudi central bank maintains a cautious stance amid inflation hovering near 3.50%, slightly above the 2-3% target range. Export growth supports fiscal revenues, allowing for continued government spending without aggressive monetary tightening. The SAR remains pegged to the USD, limiting exchange rate flexibility but preserving external stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Saudi Riyal strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release. Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) gained 0.70%, reflecting investor confidence in export-driven earnings. Oil futures (WTI) rose 1.10%, reinforcing the export outlook.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside export data provides a fuller picture of Saudi Arabia’s economic health. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 3.40% year-on-year (YoY), buoyed by the export sector’s strength. Inflation remains moderate but persistent, with headline CPI at 3.50% YoY and core inflation steady at 2.80%. The unemployment rate held at 7.10%, reflecting labor market stability.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) has kept the policy rate steady at 4.75%, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth to the private sector accelerated to 6.20% YoY, signaling improving financial conditions. Liquidity remains ample, with interbank rates stable.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal revenues benefited from export gains, with oil revenues up 5.50% YoY through November. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP, down from 3.40% in the same period last year. Public investment in non-oil sectors continues, aligned with Vision 2030 diversification goals.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Regional tensions in the Gulf and fluctuating oil supply agreements pose downside risks. Global demand uncertainties, especially from China’s slower growth, could dampen export momentum. However, stable OPEC+ production quotas and strategic partnerships mitigate some volatility.
Drivers this month
- Crude oil shipments accounted for 75% of total exports, up from 72% in October.
- Petrochemical exports grew 3.10% MoM, benefiting from higher global demand.
- Non-oil exports remained flat, indicating structural challenges in diversification.
This chart signals a clear upward trend in Saudi exports, reversing the mid-year slump. The export sector’s resilience underpins fiscal stability and supports the SAR currency. However, non-oil export stagnation highlights ongoing structural hurdles.
Policy pulse
Monetary authorities are likely to maintain current policy settings given the export-driven revenue boost and moderate inflation. The export strength reduces pressure for immediate rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Oil-linked equities rallied, with the ARAMCO stock gaining 1.20%. The SAR/USD pair tightened spreads, reflecting confidence in external balances.
Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s export trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects exports growing 3-5% in Q4 2025, supported by stable oil prices around $80-$85 per barrel and steady demand from Asia and Europe. Fiscal revenues will likely remain robust, enabling continued public investment and social spending.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Oil prices surge above $90/barrel due to supply constraints.
- Non-oil exports accelerate via successful diversification policies.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting investor confidence.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Oil prices stabilize near current levels.
- Export growth remains steady but modest.
- Fiscal balance improves gradually.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand weakens due to recession fears.
- Regional conflicts disrupt trade routes.
- Oil prices fall below $70/barrel, pressuring revenues.
Structural & long-run trends
Despite short-term volatility, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms aim to reduce oil dependency. Export diversification remains slow but steady, with growing sectors including petrochemicals, plastics, and non-oil manufacturing. Continued investment in logistics and trade infrastructure will be critical to sustaining export growth beyond hydrocarbons.
Saudi Arabia’s November 2025 export data underscores a resilient economic outlook amid global uncertainties. The export rebound supports fiscal consolidation and monetary stability. However, structural challenges in non-oil sectors and external geopolitical risks warrant cautious optimism. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting confidence in the Kingdom’s trade fundamentals. Policymakers must balance near-term growth with long-term diversification to ensure sustainable economic resilience.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports
Saudi Arabia’s export performance significantly influences regional equity markets, currency stability, and commodity prices. Key tradable instruments that historically track export data include the Saudi Tadawul index proxy ARAMCO, the USD/SAR currency pair, and oil futures. Additionally, the EURUSD pair reflects broader risk sentiment linked to global trade flows, while the crypto asset BTCUSD occasionally correlates with risk appetite shifts driven by macroeconomic data.
Exports vs. ARAMCO Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, Saudi export volumes and ARAMCO stock prices have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.78). Periods of export growth coincide with ARAMCO’s price rallies, driven by oil price cycles and production adjustments. This relationship underscores the critical role of hydrocarbon exports in shaping market valuations and investor sentiment in Saudi Arabia.
FAQs
- What does the latest Saudi Arabia exports data indicate?
- The November 2025 export data shows a 1.90% MoM increase to SAR 101 billion, signaling export sector resilience amid global uncertainties.
- How does export growth affect Saudi Arabia’s economy?
- Export growth boosts fiscal revenues, supports GDP expansion, and stabilizes the currency, aiding monetary policy effectiveness.
- What are the main risks to Saudi Arabia’s export outlook?
- Key risks include global demand slowdowns, oil price volatility, and regional geopolitical tensions impacting trade flows.
Final takeaway: Saudi Arabia’s export rebound in November 2025 strengthens economic fundamentals but requires continued diversification and risk management to sustain growth amid global uncertainties.
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, Saudi Arabia Exports, November 2025 release.
- Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) reports, Q3 2025.
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, November 2025.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East, 2025.
- Bloomberg commodity and equity market data, November 2025.
ARAMCO – Saudi oil giant’s stock closely tracks export revenues and oil price cycles.
EURUSD – Reflects global risk sentiment impacting Saudi trade flows.
USDSAR – Currency pair directly influenced by Saudi export performance and oil revenues.
BTCUSD – Crypto market’s risk appetite often correlates with macroeconomic data releases.
TASI – Saudi stock index sensitive to export sector developments and oil price trends.
November’s export figure of SAR 101 billion represents a 1.90% increase from October’s SAR 99.10 billion and surpasses the 12-month average of SAR 95.70 billion. This rebound follows a dip in June 2025, when exports bottomed at SAR 90.30 billion, highlighting a recovery phase in the second half of the year.
Comparing the last three months, exports rose from SAR 92.10 billion in August to SAR 102.40 billion in September, then moderated slightly before the current print. The volatility reflects oil price swings and seasonal trade patterns.