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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 2.2% from December's 5.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.01%. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 3
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Saudi Arabia) was reported at 3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.36%, ranging from 3% to 5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.3%, down from the prior three at 4.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.76%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SA
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.