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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -4.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -4.8% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 7.8% from March's 3.0% reading. The reading missed the 3.8% consensus by 8.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.02%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 33 months.
Latest Release
-4.8
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.98 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.9
Actual: -4.8
Error: +8.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Saudi Arabia) was reported at -4.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.8% by 8.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.11%, ranging from -4.8% to 5% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, down from the prior three at 4.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.3%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.42%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged -0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.98%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SA
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -4.8 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | SA | Bank Lending YoY | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.95 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:15 | SA | PMI | 53.3 | 53 | 53.75 | Low | |