Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Saudi Arabia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 2.2% from December's 5.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.24%. The reading is in the 19th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 3
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Saudi Arabia) was reported at -4.8% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.96%, ranging from -4.8% to 5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, down from the prior three at 4.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Gross Domestic Product YoY - SA
Loading chart data...
About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
Saudi Arabia's Gross Domestic Product YoY contracted by -4.800000% in June 2026, a sharp reversal from May's 3.000000% growth. This marks a significant downturn in economic activity year-over-year, indicating a move from expansion to contraction. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data releases and central bank signals for guidance. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -4.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - SA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:50 | SA | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -4.8 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.50 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | SA | Bank Lending YoY | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.95 | Low |