Saudi Arabia’s industrial production growth accelerated sharply in November 2025, registering a 9.30% year-over-year (YoY) increase. This reading notably exceeded the market estimate of 8.00% and the prior month’s 6.80%, according to the Sigmanomics database. The surge reflects a rebound from the mid-year slowdown and signals robust industrial activity, particularly in energy and manufacturing sectors.

Drivers this month

• Energy sector output expanded by an estimated 12%, driven by higher oil production and petrochemical exports.
• Manufacturing growth accelerated to 6.50%, supported by increased domestic demand and export orders.
• Mining and quarrying activities rose 8.00%, reflecting infrastructure projects and resource extraction.

Policy pulse

The 9.30% growth rate sits comfortably above the Saudi central bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%, suggesting strong real sector momentum. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) has maintained a steady policy stance with moderate liquidity injections, supporting industrial credit growth without overheating the economy.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Saudi Riyal (SAR) strengthened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release. Energy-linked equities such as ARAMCO rallied 1.50%, while the USDSAR pair declined, reflecting confidence in sustained industrial growth.

Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Saudi Arabia’s real economy. The 9.30% YoY growth in November 2025 contrasts sharply with the subdued 1.30% recorded in March and the negative 0.20% in April, highlighting a strong recovery trajectory over the past eight months.

Historical comparisons

• November 2025’s 9.30% is the highest since August 2025’s 7.90%, marking a sustained upward trend.
• The average industrial production growth over the past 12 months stands at approximately 4.50%, underscoring the recent acceleration.
• Compared to the 2024 annual average of 3.20%, the current pace signals a significant cyclical upswing.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

SAMA’s current monetary stance remains accommodative, with benchmark rates steady at 3.50%. Credit growth to the industrial sector has averaged 6% YoY, supporting capital expenditures. Inflation remains contained at 2.80%, allowing room for policy stability.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Saudi Arabia’s 2025 fiscal budget continues to prioritize infrastructure and industrial diversification, with a 7% increase in capital spending. This fiscal support complements monetary conditions, bolstering industrial output growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the release, the BTCUSD pair saw a modest 0.40% uptick, reflecting increased risk appetite linked to emerging market industrial strength. The ARAMCO stock price surged, while the USDSAR currency pair declined, indicating SAR appreciation.

Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s industrial production growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline forecast anticipates continued expansion at 7-8% YoY over the next six months, supported by stable oil prices and ongoing fiscal stimulus.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Oil prices rise above $90/barrel, boosting energy sector output beyond current levels.
• Accelerated implementation of Vision 2030 reforms enhances manufacturing competitiveness.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, improving export conditions.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Oil prices stabilize near $75-$80/barrel, supporting steady energy production.
• Fiscal spending remains on track, sustaining infrastructure projects.
• Monetary policy stays accommodative but vigilant against inflation.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains and export routes.
• Oil prices fall below $65/barrel, dampening energy sector growth.
• Inflationary pressures force monetary tightening, slowing industrial credit.

Structural & long-run trends

Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector is gradually diversifying away from oil dependency. Investments in petrochemicals, mining, and advanced manufacturing are key to sustaining long-term growth. The recent surge in industrial production aligns with Vision 2030’s goals of economic diversification and job creation.

Saudi Arabia’s November 2025 industrial production YoY growth of 9.30% marks a significant cyclical upswing. Supported by favorable monetary and fiscal policies, the industrial sector is poised for continued expansion. However, external geopolitical risks and oil price volatility remain key downside threats. Market reactions underscore confidence in the kingdom’s economic resilience and reform trajectory. Investors and policymakers should monitor energy markets and geopolitical developments closely to gauge the sustainability of this growth phase.