Sweden’s Latest Balance of Trade: A Cautious Signal Amid Shifting Global Tides
The November 2025 release of Sweden’s Balance of Trade reveals a marked slowdown, with the surplus narrowing sharply to SEK 1.50 billion. This figure falls well below market expectations of SEK 4.10 billion and the prior month’s SEK 5.40 billion. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report contextualizes the latest reading against historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and policy frameworks. We assess the implications for Sweden’s economic trajectory amid evolving external shocks and financial market sentiment.
Table of Contents
Sweden’s trade surplus contracted to SEK 1.50 billion in November 2025, signaling a slowdown in external demand and export momentum. This contrasts sharply with the SEK 5.40 billion surplus recorded in October and the 12-month average of SEK 6.30 billion. The decline reflects weaker exports amid global supply chain disruptions and subdued commodity prices. Imports remained relatively stable, suggesting domestic demand is holding but not accelerating. The narrowing surplus poses challenges for Sweden’s growth outlook, given the country’s export-dependent economy.
Drivers this month
- Exports slowed due to weaker demand from the Eurozone and China.
- Imports remained steady, supported by domestic consumption and investment.
- Energy prices stabilized, reducing volatility in trade values.
Policy pulse
The current trade balance reading sits below the central bank’s comfort zone, potentially complicating efforts to sustain SEK strength and inflation targeting. The Riksbank’s recent rate hikes may face headwinds if export growth falters further.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SEK weakened 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over export softness and growth prospects.
Sweden’s balance of trade is a critical macroeconomic indicator, reflecting the net difference between exports and imports. The latest SEK 1.50 billion surplus is the lowest since the negative reading of SEK -8.90 billion in September 2025, underscoring volatility in trade flows this year. Over the past 12 months, the average surplus stood at SEK 6.30 billion, highlighting the current dip as a notable deviation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Riksbank’s tightening cycle, with the benchmark repo rate at 3.75%, aims to curb inflation but risks dampening export competitiveness through a stronger SEK. The trade slowdown may prompt reassessment of rate path assumptions if external demand weakens further.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Sweden’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a budget deficit target of 0.50% of GDP. The government’s infrastructure investments support import demand but also aim to boost long-term export capacity. Trade softness could pressure fiscal revenues linked to export sectors.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Lingering supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to weigh on Sweden’s trade. The slowdown in Chinese demand and Eurozone industrial output further dampen export prospects.
Compared to the historical peak surplus of SEK 14.40 billion in March 2025, the current reading signals a significant cooling. The trade balance has oscillated widely this year, with the September deficit representing the nadir. The recent narrowing suggests a fragile recovery but highlights persistent headwinds.
This chart reveals a clear downward trend in Sweden’s trade surplus since mid-2025, driven by export weakness and stable import demand. The data suggest that external demand shocks and supply chain issues remain key constraints. The reversal from October’s rebound indicates uncertainty in the near-term trade outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SEK depreciated modestly against major currencies, with the USD/SEK rising 0.40% shortly after the print. Bond yields edged lower, reflecting increased growth concerns.
Looking ahead, Sweden’s trade balance faces a complex mix of risks and opportunities. The baseline scenario forecasts a gradual recovery in exports as supply chains normalize and global demand stabilizes, projecting a return to a SEK 4–5 billion surplus by Q1 2026 (probability 55%).
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Strong rebound in Eurozone manufacturing and Chinese demand.
- Resolution of key supply chain bottlenecks.
- Export sectors benefit from SEK depreciation.
- Trade surplus exceeds SEK 7 billion by mid-2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Moderate export growth offset by steady import demand.
- Trade surplus stabilizes around SEK 4–5 billion.
- Monetary policy remains cautiously restrictive.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Prolonged global slowdown and geopolitical tensions.
- Further export contraction, possibly returning to deficit territory.
- Pressure on SEK and inflation dynamics.
Policy pulse
The Riksbank’s next moves will hinge on trade and growth data. A sustained trade slowdown could delay further rate hikes or prompt a pause, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Sweden’s November 2025 balance of trade reading signals caution amid a volatile global backdrop. The sharp drop in surplus highlights vulnerabilities in export demand and external conditions. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between sustaining inflation targets and supporting growth. Financial markets have reacted with modest SEK weakness and bond yield adjustments, reflecting uncertainty. Structural trends, including Sweden’s export diversification and digital economy growth, offer long-term resilience but cannot fully offset near-term shocks. Monitoring upcoming trade data and global developments will be critical for assessing Sweden’s macroeconomic trajectory.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Equity markets in Sweden showed mild declines, with export-oriented sectors underperforming. The OMX Stockholm 30 index fell 0.50% in early trading.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
Sweden’s balance of trade data typically influences currency, equity, and bond markets sensitive to export and import dynamics. The SEK currency pair and export-heavy stocks are particularly reactive to shifts in trade surplus or deficit. Monitoring these assets offers insight into market sentiment and economic expectations.
- EURSEK – Tracks SEK strength versus the Euro, sensitive to trade flows with the Eurozone.
- ERIC-B.ST – Ericsson, a major Swedish exporter, correlates with trade performance.
- SAAB-B.ST – Defense and aerospace exports impact this stock’s sensitivity to trade data.
- USDSEK – Reflects SEK’s global currency strength, influenced by trade balance shifts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often moves inversely to trade-driven currency volatility.
Insight: Sweden’s Balance of Trade vs. ERIC-B.ST Since 2020
Since 2020, Ericsson’s stock price (ERIC-B.ST) has closely tracked Sweden’s trade balance fluctuations. Periods of rising trade surpluses often coincide with upward trends in ERIC-B.ST, reflecting strong export demand. Conversely, trade deficits or narrowing surpluses align with stock price dips. This correlation underscores Ericsson’s role as a bellwether for Sweden’s external sector health and export-driven growth.
FAQs
- What does Sweden’s balance of trade indicate about its economy?
- The balance of trade reflects the net exports minus imports, signaling external demand strength and economic competitiveness.
- How does the balance of trade affect the SEK currency?
- A surplus typically supports SEK appreciation, while a deficit can weaken the currency due to lower foreign exchange inflows.
- What are the risks to Sweden’s trade outlook?
- Risks include global demand slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions impacting export markets.
Key takeaway: Sweden’s November 2025 trade surplus contraction to SEK 1.50 billion signals external demand softness, posing challenges for growth and monetary policy amid global uncertainties.
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, Sweden Balance of Trade releases, November 2025.
- Riksbank Monetary Policy Reports, November 2025.
- Swedish National Institute of Economic Research, 2025 Trade Data.
- Eurostat, Global Trade and Economic Indicators, 2025.
The November 2025 balance of trade surplus of SEK 1.50 billion is significantly lower than October’s SEK 5.40 billion and the 12-month average of SEK 6.30 billion. This sharp decline marks a reversal from the modest rebound seen in October after the September deficit of SEK -8.90 billion. The volatility reflects shifting global demand and supply chain constraints.
Exports contracted by 4.20% MoM, while imports edged up 0.70%, narrowing the surplus. The export slowdown was most pronounced in machinery and automotive sectors, which account for over 40% of total exports.