Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Balance of Trade fell to -7.3K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Sweden Balance of Trade fell to -7.3K in April 2026, released May 2026, down 14.2K from March's 6.9K reading. The reading missed the 4.4K consensus by 11.7K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.23K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 5.8K, vs 9.5K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-7.3
Actual
4.4
Consensus
6.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.55 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.53
Actual: -7.3
Error: +10.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Sweden) was reported at -7 thousand in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4 thousand by 12 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 7 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4 thousand, ranging from -9 thousand to 13 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0 thousand, down from the prior three at 7 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 7 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 6 thousand). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 2 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/SEK, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Riksbank Rate Decision (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - SE
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Sweden
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -7.3 K, consensus 4.4 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 9.3 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.