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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Balance of Trade fell to 1.2K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Sweden Balance of Trade fell to 1.2K in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.3K from June's 2.5K reading. The reading missed the 3K consensus by 1.8K. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 2.75K, vs 1.27K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
3
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.55 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.73
Actual: 1.2
Error: +5.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Sweden) was reported at 1 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3 thousand by 2 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 3 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2 thousand, ranging from -9 thousand to 12 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2 thousand, up from the prior three at 0 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 6 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 6 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 4 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - SE
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About Balance of Trade — Sweden
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.2 K, consensus 3 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.6 K. Before that (May 2026): 2.9 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.507 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption MoM | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption YoY | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |